BANGKOK - Thailand’s political landscape has been thrown into uncertainty after the Constitutional Court on Friday disqualified Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, setting the stage for intense parliamentary manoeuvring to fill the leadership vacuum.
With 143 MPs, the opposition People’s Party (PP) has emerged as the kingmaker, holding nearly one-third of the lower house and being aggressively courted by both the ruling Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties to secure a parliamentary majority.
Its support could prove decisive in determining the next administration.
However, the party has set two conditions - the dissolution of parliament within four months and a constitutional referendum to amend the charter in that timeframe.
Associate Professor Dr Chaiwat Meesanthan, Director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at Thammasat University, said there are currently two frontrunners for the premiership - Pheu Thai’s Chaikasem Nitisiri and Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul.
"Both parties are actively working to build support and secure more than 246 votes in parliament.
"The final outcome depends on political negotiations and coalition-building, with the key factor being whether any candidate can gather enough backing from Members of Parliament,” he told Bernama.
PP is the third incarnation, following the Future Forward Party, founded in 2018, and the Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the 2023 general election but failed to secure majority support in the bicameral parliament to claim the premiership.
The Move Forward Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in August 2024, which also revoked the electoral rights of its executive committee members for 10 years over its flagship campaign to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese-majeste law.
Currently led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the People’s Party announced on Monday that it would not join any government.
A further meeting with its MPs and executive committee is scheduled for Tuesday, with a decision on whom to support expected ahead of this week’s parliamentary vote for Thailand’s new prime minister.
Thailand’s current coalition government, led by Pheu Thai together with 10 other parties, holds 253 seats, while the opposition, led by the People’s Party, controls 239 seats, including Bhumjaithai.
Under parliamentary rules, a candidate requires the endorsement of at least 50 MPs before the House can proceed to a vote.
To be elected prime minister, a nominee must secure a majority of more than half of the lower house’s current 492 members or at least 247 votes.
Besides Chaikasem and Anutin, three other eligible candidates remain from the lists submitted ahead of the 2023 election: United Thai Nation Party’s Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, Democrat Party’s Jurin Laksanawisit, and former prime minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha, also of the United Thai Nation Party.
Local media reported that the House of Representatives is expected to convene on Sept 4 and 5 to consider the prime ministerial nominations.
House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha was quoted as saying he has instructed the secretary-general of the House to coordinate the acceptance of nominations from political parties. - BERNAMA