SHAH ALAM – Barisan Nasional (BN) is seen as facing the greatest risk in the upcoming 17th Sabah State Election as pro-government votes appear likely to split, strengthening Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) in Malay-majority and Bumiputera seats.
Political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mashitah Mohd Udin said the state coalition led by Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor was already in a solid position as the ruling government.
She explained that GRS benefited from its administrative machinery, the influence of community leaders, and strong grassroots networks, making it well-positioned to retain its support base even while contesting against another government bloc.
In contrast, she stated that Umno Sabah under BN had faced significant challenges following its split with GRS, losing many leaders and supporters to GRS component parties such as Gagasan Rakyat.
According to her, traditional Umno support in Malay-majority and Bumiputera constituencies, once dominant, had now fractured.
She described that in Malay-majority and Bumiputera areas, Umno’s once solid support base has become divided. Some voters continue to back BN, while others have shifted their support to GRS.
Mashitah added that the situation had opened opportunities for opposition parties like Warisan to enter former pro-government strongholds with only narrow vote margins.
Meanwhile, Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM), explained that overlapping seats between BN and GRS carried serious consequences for political stability in the state.
He said the absence of a strong majority would likely lead to political realignments similar to past events.
He stated that the formation of the Sabah government after the State Election could become increasingly complex.
“If both coalitions fail to achieve a simple majority due to vote splitting, Sabah may face a scenario of a multi-party coalition government.
“In such a situation, parties such as Warisan or Independent candidates could become kingmakers. This has happened before in Sabah’s political history and usually results in a fragile government,” he said.