SHAH ALAM – Sabah is set to enter a new chapter in its political landscape as more than half a million young and first-time voters emerge as a decisive bloc in the 17th state election this Saturday, a development that makes the outcome increasingly unpredictable and the ground battle more intense.
Political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said local issues such as rural development, the future and welfare of youth and the interests of first-time voters are now the top considerations shaping voter sentiment.
He added that the implementation and progress of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) will also feature prominently as a key issue influencing voter decisions in this election.
“If political parties and candidates manage to persuade these new and young voters, particularly through social media in these final hours, they will stand a higher chance of securing more seats,” he told Sinar.
Tawfik believes major shifts in voter sentiment are unlikely in the deep rural areas, where family ties and personal connections with candidates still dominate.
Voting patterns may remain unchanged in certain constituencies due to satisfaction with current living conditions.
“Rural issues such as access to clean water, electricity, and proper roads remain the hottest and most important concerns for voters this time. These are matters that affect their daily lives.
“Parties and candidates must prioritize these bread-and-butter issues at the tail end of campaigning if they want to strengthen their influence among voters in interior areas,” he said.
According to Tawfik, although there is a genuine desire for change among Sabahans, it remains difficult for any party to secure the simple majority of 37 seats needed to form a government.
He foresees a high likelihood of a political partnership between Barisan Nasional (BN), Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) to form a coalition government, even though the idea seemed improbable before the polls.
“I also foresee the possibility of a compromise candidate for the Chief Minister post, bypassing current party leaders and political warlords in Sabah.
“One potential name is Datuk Ruji Ubi, provided he wins in Merotai, similar to what happened in Perlis previously when Umno and the BN leadership appointed Azlan Man as a compromise Menteri Besar in 2013 due to a state-level leadership crisis,” he added.
Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi predicted that this Saturday’s state polls would not see any party clinching a clear majority, opening the door to a coalition government.
Zahid, who is also BN chairman, said that based on his assessment, multi-cornered fights across many seats make it difficult for any coalition to emerge dominant, further reinforcing the need for political cooperation to ensure stability in Sabah.
Status Quo or Political Reset?
Meanwhile, political analyst from Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS), Associate Professor Dr Syahruddin Awang Ahmad said voter preferences remain moderate but are heavily influenced by the dilemma of either maintaining GRS as the status quo or rejecting it due to its partnership with Pakatan Harapan (PH), which some voters feel undermines local political identity.
He said Warisan remains strong and is the preferred choice among voters seeking major changes, especially those still sympathetic over the 2020 political episode where the party led by former Chief Minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal fell.
“Among local parties like Star, PBS, PBRS, PKDM and other smaller groups, there is a clear desire for a ‘wind of change,’ particularly within the Kadazan, Dusun, Murut and Rungus (KDMR) communities.
“I also see integrity issues, including the resurfacing of corruption-related videos involving GRS leaders, causing some segments, especially older voters, to lose confidence.
“They worry that if leaders accused of corruption return to power, opportunities for abuse will widen,” he said.
Interestingly, Syahruddin emphasised that among Bumiputera Muslim voters, party loyalty no longer determines voting choices; personal reputation and regional considerations now take precedence.
He noted that voters increasingly choose based on individual candidates and local dynamics rather than party identity, a trend that emerged after Umno’s fragmentation led to the rise of Perikatan Nasional (PN), Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), and Warisan.
He added that a recent factor influencing voter sentiment is the controversy involving the Senior Political Secretary to the Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin, as well as negative perceptions around PH–GRS cooperation and dissatisfaction with the integrity concerns surrounding leaders from GRS, PH, and BN.
Whatever the outcome, the voices of Sabah’s voters will determine the direction of the state government for the next five years.