WHO holds more power in Asean-China relations?
Could it be that China needs Asean more or is the relationship truly interdependent? As a major industrial nation, is China actually more vulnerable and dependent on Asean’s resources and location?
Many experts have debated the extent to which Asean depends on China, examining both economic and military factors. China is Asean's largest trading partner and a key investor, particularly in the areas of technology, energy and infrastructure.
Asean also relies on China’s military strength to balance other major powers. China often acts as a “Big Brother” in the region.
This view is reinforced by Beijing’s assertive stance towards certain Asean countries over maritime disputes. Examples include using maritime militia, China Coast Guard incursions, water cannons, risky manoeuvres and building artificial islands and military bases in the disputed South China Sea.
However, this perspective is incomplete because it overlooks China’s geopolitical weaknesses and the importance of key resources that can shift the balance.
The author believes that China and Asean both need each other and the relationship benefits both sides. From an economic and trade perspective, China needs Asean because Asean has become China’s largest trading partner in recent years, surpassing the EU and the US in some areas. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) further strengthens these economic ties.
Second, China’s energy security depends heavily on the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ and its need for raw materials from Asean. The “Malacca Dilemma” is the risk that a rival, like the US or its allies, could block the Strait of Malacca, which would seriously harm China’s economy and military.
About 80 per cent of China’s imported oil and two-thirds of its maritime trade go through this strait. This makes China very vulnerable. Since Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia control the strait, China must keep good relations and steady cooperation with them to protect its trade route.
Other land routes, like pipelines through Myanmar, Kazakhstan and Pakistan are much smaller, costlier, less stable and harder to use. So, China must act carefully, as any aggressive move could push these countries away.
Third, China relies on important resources like Rare Earth Elements (REE). While China processes over 90 per cent of the world’s REE, it now depends more on imports to keep this lead.
Asean is becoming a key supplier, especially Myanmar, which provides more than half of China’s heavy rare earth materials. Malaysia and Vietnam also have large reserves. Because these countries can choose their partners, they have leverage that worries Beijing if supplies are threatened.
Fourth, China needs Asean as a buffer zone in the region. Asean's neutral stance helps support China from external threats, especially from the US and its allies. China sees moves by countries like the Philippines or Vietnam to work closely with the US, such as signing security deals or hosting military bases, as direct threats. Therefore, China must focus on diplomacy and economic incentives to maintain Asean's neutrality and prevent losing its support.
In conclusion, the relationship between China and Asean is more complex than it may seem at first glance, if we only consider China’s economic, trade and military power.
When considering the “Malacca Dilemma” and China’s growing need for Asean's resources, it’s clear that the notion that Asean needs China more is open to debate. Asean countries are not just recipients of Chinese investment; they also hold some of China’s biggest strategic weaknesses.
The region’s geography and resources give Asean a natural edge over China’s economic and military might. Because China relies on Asean for resources and its strategic location, Asean could hold a stronger position in future talks. Asean countries quietly hold the power to support or disrupt China’s economic lifeline.
This means that China’s dependence on Asean is its biggest hidden weakness. Therefore, when we ask who needs whom more, it becomes clear that China may need Asean more to maintain its prosperity.
Lt Gen Datuk Seri Muhammad Huzaimi Sabri is the Chief Executive for Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security (MiDAS). The views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Sinar Daily.