SHAH ALAM - Sabah is set to open Malaysia’s political calendar with high-stakes by-elections in Kinabatangan and Lamag on Jan 24, 2026. The by-elections are widely seen as a litmus test of voter sentiment ahead of potential early state and general elections.
The contests follow the death of Datuk Bung Moktar Radin on Dec 5 less than a week after securing a second term as Lamag assemblyman.
While the immediate goal is to fill the seats left vacant following the death of Datuk Bung Moktar Radin on Dec 5 less than a week after securing a second term as Lamag assemblyman, the implications extend far beyond routine electoral procedure.
Analysts and party strategists are watching closely, as these results, together with the recently concluded Sabah state election, could influence strategies in other states and shape national political calculations ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).
Attention is not limited to Sabah. In Perlis, political uncertainty has intensified following the sacking of three Pas state assemblymen from the party, raising the possibility of by-elections or even a snap state election should the balance of power be disrupted.
The situation was further complicated on Dec 25 when Sanglang state assemblyman Mohd Shukri Ramli announced his voluntary resignation as Perlis Menteri Besar due to health reasons, with immediate effect. He was replaced by newly-minted Menteri Besar Abu Bakar Hamzah. The situation in Perlis highlights how fragile state-level dynamics could add to pressure for earlier-than-expected polls in select states.
Calls for GE16 to coincide with the Melaka and Johor state elections have already emerged. State legislative assemblies are constitutionally limited to a five-year term from their first sitting, after which they dissolve automatically if not dissolved earlier, with elections required within 60 days.
Melaka’s term expires on Dec 27, 2026, requiring polls by Feb 25, 2027; Sarawak’s term ends on Feb 14, 2027, with elections by April 15, 2027 and Johor’s term concludes on April 21, 2027, necessitating polls by June 20, 2027.
Six Peninsular states namely Selangor, Penang, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu hold concurrent terms expiring between August and September 2028. Meanwhile, Parliament is due to dissolve by Dec 19, 2027, unless an early dissolution is called.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim has, however, dismissed the prospect of an early general election. He said he had not given it any thought, with his focus firmly on “reforms and alleviating the problems people face, particularly the problems people face.”
The 17th Sabah general election, held on Nov 29, 2025, resulted in a hung assembly for the second time since 2018. Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor, won 29 seats. National parties fared poorly with Pakatan Harapan securing only one seat, while the Democratic Action Party (DAP) lost all eight constituencies it contested. Warisan, meanwhile, increased its representation from 23 to 25 seats. And, Pas made inroads into Sabah by winning the Karambunai seat.
One political observer, who requested anonymity, noted that while the outcome does not automatically trigger early nationwide elections, it does shift political incentives.
“States with fragile coalitions or narrow majorities may see early polls as advantageous, acting before economic pressures ease or federal popularity recovers.
“However, for states with unstable alliances, fluid party loyalties, or local grievances similar to Sabah’s, early polls may appear increasingly attractive,” he added.
He emphasised that early state elections are “tactical decisions by chief ministers and ruling coalitions, weighing risk against opportunity. Sabah’s outcome may embolden leaders confident of capitalising on current voter sentiment, while pressuring more cautious leaders to consider pre-emptive dissolution.”
However, states aligned with the federal government have less incentive to rush to the ballot box. Cost-of-living concerns persist, reforms remain incomplete and voter fatigue is real. An early election under such circumstances risks becoming a referendum on governance failures rather than a renewal of mandate.
The DAP, through its secretary-general Anthony Loke, had reaffirmed the party’s support for simultaneous federal and state elections, citing it as a step to enhance efficiency and reduce election management costs. He noted that while the decision to dissolve Parliament rests solely with the prime minister, DAP, as a leading party in government, would offer its perspective to help coordinate the dissolution should simultaneous elections be pursued.
“Whether simultaneous elections will be held, I cannot say… the power to dissolve Parliament rests with the prime minister. However, as a leading party, we fully support the idea of conducting them,” he said at the 2025 Johor DAP Annual Convention.
However, the outcome of the Sabah election points in the opposite direction for GE16. An early general election is unappealing due to the federal government's losing bid in the state election.
Furthermore, an early dissolution of Parliament is not required by the constitution.
Rushing into a general election could be risky for the current administration. By exercising patience, the government can consolidate its position better, manage public expectations, and strengthen its policy record before the next nationwide vote, rather than courting the uncertainty and potential setbacks of a premature election.
The Sabah results, therefore, serve as a cautionary reminder that electoral timing must be guided by strategy and stability rather than political impulse.