SHAH ALAM - The revival of Muafakat Nasional (MN) is unlikely to bring down Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Madani government in the immediate term.
However, political analysts warned it could become a powerful pressure tool on Malay sentiment and a serious electoral force heading into the next general election.
Political analyst Professor James Chin said while MN does not pose an imminent threat to the current government, its re-emergence would significantly raise pressure from the Malay ground, especially in an election climate where political nerves were already frayed.
"If MN comes into being, it will mean a lot of pressure on the Madani government from the Malay ground.
"As to whether it can topple the Anwar government, I think it’s unlikely. But anything can happen this year and next year because it’s an election year and people are getting very jittery," he told Sinar Daily.
Chin stressed that MN’s core strategy was less about immediate regime change and more about consolidating Malay support by framing Anwar as failing to protect Malay and Islamic interests.
He said the whole idea of MN was to round up the Malay ground and apply maximum pressure on Anwar.
"It’s not necessarily about making people angry for its own sake, but to make it look like Anwar is not doing enough for the Malay community or for Islam," he added.
He said the real objective was electoral rather than parliamentary.
He said the main aim of MN was to defeat Anwar in the next general election, rather than to remove him immediately, adding that any move to bring down the government now would face major obstacles due to anti-hopping laws.
Still, Chin cautioned that reviving MN would be a major challenge, given the long-standing rivalry between its key components.
"It is very hard to bring MN together because Umno cannot get along with Bersatu, this is a well-known fact.
"So to bring Umno and Bersatu to sit at the same table would already be a major achievement if they can do it," he added.
Echoing a similar view, O2 Research Head and political analyst Anis Anwar Suhaimi said dissatisfaction existed both within Umno and in society at large, but not at a level strong enough to justify Umno pulling out of the unity government at this stage.
"In the immediate term, it is unlikely that the reinstallation of MN would be able to topple the current Madani government.
"While dissatisfaction certainly exists across multiple levels, the push factors are not yet strong enough to justify Umno formally exiting the unity government," he said.
Anis noted that political unease within Umno was largely tied to former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s legal predicament, while societal tensions were more visible in increasingly strained Malay–Chinese relations.
However, he said these grievances have not yet reached a catalytic point comparable to past flashpoints which previously provided Umno with both moral and political justification to withdraw from government arrangements.
At the same time, Anis said Pakatan Harapan (PH) would retain a strong narrative advantage if Umno were to suddenly walk away.
"Any sudden withdrawal by Umno would likely be framed as another ‘tebuk atap’ episode or as an act driven by elite power hunger rather than public interest.
"This would further damage Umno’s credibility and contradict the spirit of the previous Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s call for stability for this parliamentary term," he said.
However, Anis said the equation changes significantly when viewed through the lens of the 16th General Election.
"If current alignments remain unchanged, a PH–Barisan Nasional arrangement could still rely on Borneo blocs to form a government.
"But a revived MN has the potential to secure a simple majority on its own, assuming high vote transferability and continued consolidation of Malay support," he added.
Under such circumstances, Anis said Borneo-based parties were likely to take a pragmatic approach and align with whichever bloc demonstrated the clearest path to forming the federal government, particularly if their regional interests were safeguarded.