MELAKA - Speculation over the possible early dissolution of the Melaka State Legislative Assembly has once again reignited public discussion on the timing of the Melaka State Election, despite the current term only ending on Dec 26.
The rumours have surfaced at a time when the state’s political landscape appears stable, prompting observers to link the move to strategic calculations aimed at consolidating political advantage for the current administration.
The speculation was further fuelled by recent remarks from Deputy Prime Minister and Barisan Nasional (BN) chairman, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who was reported to have said that the Melaka state election is expected to be held within the next two to 10 months, triggering various political interpretations.
Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Communication and Media Studies, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Melaka branch, Dr Shafezah Abdul Wahab, said that from a constitutional standpoint, there is no pressing need for a state election to be held in the near term, as the current state legislative assembly only expires in December.
However, she noted that, should an early dissolution take place, it would likely be driven by considerations of political timing and strategy by the current administration, rather than any legal necessity.
"If we look at previous patterns, the period often considered most conducive for holding an election is after the Aidilfitri celebrations and before the end of the year, typically between June and August. This timeframe is generally viewed as more stable in terms of weather conditions, economic activity and public sentiment.
"However, an earlier dissolution could also pose risks to the current government if voter sentiment has not yet fully swung in its favour,” she told Bernama.
Commenting on BN’s prospects of retaining its dominance in Melaka, as seen in the previous state election, she said the coalition still has strong potential, but cautioned that this should not be taken as a reason for complacency.
In this regard, Shafezah said the selection of candidates must prioritise credible individuals who are able to present a convincing local narrative, supported by a refreshed strategy aimed at attracting young voters, as well as fence-sitters.
She added that BN's key challenge at present is to ensure that the performance of the state administration is genuinely felt by the people, particularly in addressing issues related to the cost of living, employment opportunities and grassroots welfare.
"Stability alone is not necessarily sufficient if the outcomes of the administration are not felt by the voters,” she said.
Observing the governing pattern of the state administration led by Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh, Shafezah noted that Melaka is currently perceived as adopting a more cautious approach, with an emphasis on stability and the continuity of development projects, while major issues which could potentially threaten the state government remain under control.
On the prospects of other parties emerging as challengers to BN, she said their momentum at the state level has yet to be strong enough to position them as a viable alternative government.
"However, they still have the potential to emerge as challengers if they are able to capitalise on national issues, rising living costs and the sentiments of the younger generation. In the event of one-on-one contests in several strategic seats, BN cannot afford to take such challenges lightly,” she said.
The previous Melaka state election was held on Nov 20, 2021, and saw BN secure a landslide victory, winning 21 of the 28 state seats and enabling the coalition to form the state government with a two-thirds majority.
The seats won by BN at the time were Kuala Linggi, Tanjung Bidara, Ayer Limau, Lendu, Taboh Naning, Rembia, Gadek, Machap Jaya, Durian Tunggal, Asahan, Pantai Kundor, Paya Rumput, Kelebang, Pengkalan Batu, Ayer Molek, Duyong, Telok Mas, Rim, Serkam, Merlimau and Sungai Rambai.
The 2021 state election was triggered when four state assemblymen announced their withdrawal of support for then Chief Minister, Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali, on Oct 4, 2021, resulting in the state government losing its majority in the State Legislative Assembly. - BERNAMA