KUALA LUMPUR - At least three major incidents affecting the oil and gas industry have occurred in the past 24 hours, raising concerns of a potential global energy crisis should the Middle East conflict persist.
A senior official of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and warned that Iran would fire on any vessel attempting to transit the waterway.
Meanwhile, Qatar suspended all liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after Iranian drone strikes hit key facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed.
Saudi Aramco also halted operations at Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery in Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf coast following a drone strike in the area.
SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said a global energy crisis would not be immediate, but cautioned that a prolonged disruption could prove critical, with a three-week threshold representing a pivotal point for global markets.
"The Strait of Hormuz is not a line on a map. It is the carotid artery of the industrial world. Roughly a fifth of global oil, a fifth of LNG, and a vast share of Gulf crude squeeze through a channel barely twenty-one miles wide at its narrowest point.
"China, India, Japan, South Korea all drink from that straw. When the straw is kinked, growth does not slow down politely. It gasps. Hence the reason why Asian stocks are under the cosh again today,” he told Bernama.
Innes said a more pressing question is not whether the strait is closed today, but how long the global economy could function if it remains shut.
"Here is the math that matters. Roughly 19 million barrels per day of liquid exports rely on the Strait of Hormuz.
"Bypass pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) can only divert a fraction. That leaves close to 16 million barrels per day effectively stranded in a full disruption scenario,” he added.
Meanwhile, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, maintained its 2026 Brent crude forecast at US$67 per barrel, despite stronger-than-expected prices in the first quarter and the outbreak of military hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran.
In a research note issued today, it said that although near-term upside risks have intensified, its base case remains a short-lived, albeit significant, military campaign.
This would likely result in a brief spike in oil prices in March, followed by a rapid pullback in the second quarter as geopolitical risk premiums fade and attention returns to underlying market fundamentals.
BMI said the overall price impact would be limited on an annual average basis, with movements in the coming weeks dependent on two key factors: the reliability of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the extent and duration of damage to critical oil and gas infrastructure in the region.
It noted that transit through the strait remains technically possible, although tanker traffic has reportedly declined by as much as 85 per cent.
The drop reflects Iran’s coercive signalling, including claims of closure and cyberattacks, as well as heightened risk aversion among shipowners, operators and insurers.
At least three tankers in the Gulf have reportedly been attacked, although most oil terminals continue operating normally. Operations at the Jebel Ali port in the UAE, however, have been suspended.
"Under current conditions, transit through the strait could rebound quickly once the conflict stabilises, as seen during the 12-day war in 2025. This scenario aligns with our existing Brent forecast,” BMI added. - BERNAMA