SHAH ALAM – Delaying the next general election could become politically costly for Pakatan Harapan (PH) with analysts warning that worsening economic conditions, shifting voter sentiment and internal vote fragmentation may weaken the coalition’s position over time.
At the centre of this concern is the shifting political terrain – one that may look significantly less favourable to PH in the months ahead.
Political analyst Oh Ei Sun said broader economic trends are likely to add pressure on the government’s electoral standing if elections are delayed.
“As the global economy is likely to deteriorate as time passes on, and as Malaysia is mainly an export economy, the Malaysian economy will also get worse accordingly, and this is not conducive to voters’ support for the government of the day,” he said.
He added that PH is facing pressure from both ends of the political spectrum.
“PH is losing its conventional reformist support base, because it is perceived as backsliding on reforms.
“On the other hand, the yearning for a more conservative society that is perceived only to be able to be brought about by a PAS-led government is growing ever stronger.
“These two latter trends decisively overwhelm the former trend,” he said.
Oh also suggested that even the timing of elections may only marginally affect the outcome.
“It doesn’t really make a difference as to the ultimate outcome on the formation of the next government. Calling an election sooner could perhaps lose PH slightly fewer seats and save its face a little bit,” he said.
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) Faculty of Communication and Media Studies professor Datuk Dr Ismail Sualman said Malaysia’s political landscape remains highly fragmented, making a clear outright winner unlikely.
“Based on the current political landscape, I don't think any coalition is truly dominant enough to win easily without cross-party cooperation,” he said.
He noted that while PH retains advantages as the incumbent government, it is not in a comfortable position to govern alone.
“Malaysia's voting patterns are now highly fragmented by region, ethnicity and generation, making winning an absolute majority extremely difficult for a single bloc to achieve,” he said.
He added that PN continues to hold strong appeal among conservative Malay voters, while PH remains dependent on urban and non-Malay support.
On the question of timing, Ismail said delaying GE16 presents both opportunity and risk.
“The postponement of GE16 has two different dimensions to PH's position.
“In the short term, the additional time can provide room for the government to strengthen the economy, stabilise inflation, as well as demonstrate the results of Madani's institutional reform and development policies,” he said.
However, he warned that prolonged delays could trigger voter fatigue and dissatisfaction.
“In Malaysian politics, a government that has been in power for too long without a clear momentum of reform often faces the phenomenon of ‘fatigue effect’,” he said.
He added that cost-of-living pressures and subsidy rationalisation could further influence voter sentiment.
“If the people feel that the cost of living pressure is increasing due to the reduction of subsidies or austerity measures, then anti-incumbent sentiment can grow quickly,” he said.
Adding another layer of concern, political analyst Arif Anwar Lokmanol Hakim pointed to the risk of vote fragmentation, particularly within PH’s key support base.
"There is concern that a Rafizi-aligned bloc, potentially working alongside smaller parties such as Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) and Muda, could fragment the non-Malay and T20 vote base, posing a greater challenge to PH," he told Sinar Daily.
He added that such fragmentation could weaken PH’s ability to retain marginal seats, while potentially benefiting rival coalitions.
"While Perikatan Nasional (PN) may only experience minor losses under such conditions, Barisan Nasional (BN) could potentially gain a more significant increase in parliamentary seats," he said.
Arif noted that while PN may face internal divisions, these are unlikely to have the same structural impact as vote-splitting within PH’s support base.
Across the board, analysts agree that the government faces a narrowing window – where acting too soon carries risks, but waiting too long may prove even more damaging.
From potential vote fragmentation to economic pressures and shifting voter expectations, the political calculus suggests that timing is no longer just a strategic choice, but a critical factor that could shape the outcome of GE16.