THE dissolution of the Johor and Negeri Sembilan State Legislative Assemblies this week signals that national politics is once again entering election mode, while Melaka’s term will also expire soon.
In this situation, voices within Umno calling for several state elections to be held earlier are growing louder. Some even see this as an opportunity to pressure Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to consider bringing forward the 16th General Election.
Anwar should not get trapped. Umno’s push, particularly from the southern states of Peninsular Malaysia, is understandable. Johor and Melaka previously delivered major victories for BN in the last state elections. From an organisational standpoint, they also feel that synchronising state elections with the general election could make it easier to pool resources, machinery and campaign momentum.
In Negeri Sembilan, the political crisis is more complex. Issues involving traditional institutions and the position of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar Tuanku Muhriz have opened space for political tension. Umno subsequently withdrew its support for Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.
In reality, Umno holds the largest number of state seats in the unity government there. It is therefore not surprising that some Umno leaders in Negeri Sembilan feel dissatisfied that the Menteri Besar post remains held by PKR, even though the seat difference between the two parties is not significant.
However, the interests of Umno at the state level are not necessarily the same as those of the federal government.
In the north, the situation is very different. Umno is weak or almost absent in Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, Terengganu and Penang. That is why there is no strong push from northern Umno leaders to hold elections early. In Pahang and Perak, the situation is more evenly balanced. A wrong move could risk Umno losing even more seats.
More importantly, Umno’s confidence in winning southern state elections cannot be easily translated into a general election victory. The Johor and Melaka state elections were held separately from the general election, with lower voter turnout. In GE15, when voter participation increased, voting patterns changed. In Johor, BN only won 9 out of 26 parliamentary seats, and Umno itself won only 7. In Melaka, BN won big in the state election but failed to win a single parliamentary seat in GE15.
This shows one thing: when state elections are held separately, BN can win big because opposition voters tend to turn out less. But when a general election is held on a national scale, higher turnout makes the outcome much more difficult for BN.
That is why Anwar must be cautious. He can accept that each state may require different political configurations between PH and BN. In one state, cooperation may be practical. In another, separate contests may be more realistic. But the timing of the general election cannot be dictated by the anxieties of Umno state leaders.
This year is not the right time for GE
The most suitable time for the general election is not this year. At the latest, Parliament can be dissolved around the end of 2027. Politically, November 2027 is far more reasonable than a rushed election in 2026.
Several factors could favour Anwar if he remains patient. First, the redelineation process is already a major discussion following the end of the eight-year cycle. The old electoral map, drawn during the BN era, is not necessarily advantageous to Umno, as seen in GE15.
A new, more balanced and fair redelineation could reduce vote-value inequality, thereby offering a healthier contest for all parties in the unity government, including PH and BN.
Second, 2027 brings a more positive atmosphere. Malaysia will host the SEA Games and celebrate its 70th Independence Anniversary. Major events like these can foster national pride, stability and confidence in the Madani government.
Third, the world remains uncertain, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. If global conditions stabilise next year, the government will have better space to focus on the economy, cost of living and public sentiment.
Politics requires courage, but also patience. Umno may pursue the interests of its respective states. However, as Prime Minister, Anwar must see the bigger picture. GE16 should not be a platform to resolve the anxieties of southern Umno.
It must be a mandate-testing ground for the Madani government after sufficient time has been given to prove its capabilities.
Christine Cheah is a young woman who seeks to elevate the status of women in society. The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect those of Sinar Daily.