KUALA LUMPUR - The split between Pas and Bersatu is expected to significantly weaken the opposition ahead of the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, according to political analysts.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said if Pas and Bersatu contest separately, they would lose the strategic coordination and cooperation that had previously been among the bloc’s main strengths.
He said the situation would benefit parties in the unity government, as opposition Malay votes could be split among Pas, Bersatu, independent candidates or new political blocs.
"In the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls, the opposition will be weaker if Pas and Bersatu contest separately. Previously, (former Bersatu deputy president) Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin himself stressed the need for strong cooperation between Bersatu and PAS in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
"If that cooperation collapses, Perikatan Nasional will lose coordination in terms of candidates, machinery, funding, posters, operations centres and campaign messaging. The Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections could become a platform for voters to punish a divided opposition,” he told Bernama.
Earlier, Pas president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang announced that the Islamic party had officially decided to end its political cooperation with Bersatu. The decision was made at a special Central Working Committee meeting after considering reports, studies and current assessments of relations between the two parties.
Awang Azman said the Johor election could see more multi-cornered contests if the two parties fail to reach a political understanding, and would also serve as an important benchmark for measuring the support of moderate Malay voters towards Pas and Bersatu.
He noted that this development would be crucial in Johor’s marginal seats, as even a small vote swing of around three to five per cent could alter election outcomes.
"If Pas and Bersatu contest separately, Johor voters will test two things: whether Pas can make inroads into the southern state without Bersatu, and whether Bersatu can survive without Pas’ machinery,” he said.
As for Negeri Sembilan, he opined that Bersatu needs Pas more than the other way around, given Pas’ stronger machinery and grassroots network in rural Malay-majority areas.
Without Pas, Bersatu is expected to struggle to stand out except in areas where it has strong local personalities. Overall, Pas is seen as being in a more comfortable position to continue its political struggle compared with Bersatu.
Meanwhile, Universiti Teknologi MARA Faculty of Administrative Science and Policy Studies senior lecturer in political science Mujibu Abd Muis said the Pas-Bersatu split would also increase the risk of multi-cornered contests, making it more difficult for the opposition to challenge incumbents.
He said that under the first-past-the-post electoral system, victory does not necessarily require a large majority; instead, the splitting of opposing votes can be sufficient to determine the outcome.
"If Johor voters punish this split by delivering poor results to both parties, the message will be clear - voters reject internal conflicts and prioritise political stability.
"However, if one of the parties still performs well on its own, it could alter the balance of power within the opposition going forward. Nevertheless, I believe this is highly unlikely to happen in Johor for both Pas and Bersatu,” he said.
Both analysts also believe that developments within the opposition bloc could pose risks to the political alignment of the Perlis state administration and the position of its Menteri Besar, Abu Bakar Hamzah, who represents Bersatu.
The Johor and Negeri Sembilan state legislative assemblies were dissolved on June 1 and June 5 respectively to pave the way for the elections. Following this, the Election Commission has scheduled a special meeting on Friday (June 12) to set the dates for the polls. - BERNAMA