SHAH ALAM – Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) decision not to contest 23 out of 56 seats in the Johor state election could give Barisan Nasional (BN) a strategic advantage, although analysts caution that the real impact will depend heavily on local voter dynamics.
Political analyst Professor Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said PN’s absence effectively creates more straight fights between BN and Pakatan Harapan (PH), reshaping the electoral landscape compared to the fragmented contests seen in 2022.
"In a two-cornered contest, BN no longer faces the risk of some conservative Malay votes or dissatisfied voters shifting to PN.
"This gives BN the opportunity to consolidate traditional Umno votes, fence-sitters who prioritise stability and voters who assess the performance of the state government," he said to Sinar.
PN has confirmed it will contest 33 seats in the upcoming July 11 polls, leaving 23 seats uncontested by the coalition, including 13 held by BN and nine previously won by PH, as well as Puteri Wangsa.
Awang noted that BN’s strong 2022 performance, where it won 40 seats, was partly driven by multi-cornered fights and opposition vote splitting.
"BN’s landslide victory then was also helped by multi-cornered contests, opposition vote splitting and a low voter turnout of around 54.92 per cent.
“This time’s straight fights could produce contrasting outcomes depending on whether seats are urban, semi-urban or rural, with BN stronger in Malay-majority areas where some PN voters may shift support due to stability concerns.
"Conversely, in urban or mixed areas, PN’s absence may also benefit PH because anti-BN votes are no longer split among several parties," he said.
Awang stressed that BN cannot assume automatic transfer of PN support, warning that voter abstention and protest votes remain possible.
Meanwhile, another analyst, Muhammad Afifi Abdul Razak of Universiti Utara Malaysia, said the 23 uncontested seats do provide BN with an advantage, but the situation is more complex than it appears.
He pointed to BN’s 43.11 per cent popular vote in 2022, which still translated into a dominant seat share under the First-Past-The-Post system due to opposition fragmentation.
However, he warned that PN’s competitiveness in the 33 seats it is contesting could limit the overall impact of BN’s advantage in the uncontested areas.
"However, realistically, this significant opportunity should not be ignored by BN," he said.