SHAH ALAM –The Negeri Sembilan state election may only select a state government, but its impact extends beyond the state's borders.
Beyond the victories and defeats of the candidates, the resulting decision carries at least four main implications: testing the effectiveness of the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) cooperation formula.
Additionally, it acts as a decisive factor for the strategy leading up to the Melaka state election, alters the political landscape of Negeri Sembilan through the defeat of two major Pakatan Harapan (PH) figures and sends a new signal regarding the PH-BN relationship within the unity government.
For Ilham Centre Executive Director Hisommudin Bakar, the results in Johor and Negeri Sembilan provide an early indication that the BN-PN cooperation is no longer a mere political trial; rather, it has begun to gain acceptance among Malay voters.
He said in Negeri Sembilan, this acceptance is seen more clearly because there was no seat overlapping between BN and PN, thereby allowing the transfer of votes to occur in a more orderly manner, whereas in Johor, the votes of PN supporters were successfully translated into a victory for the BN candidate.
"Malay voters welcomed the philosophy of Malay-Muslim unity and it was translated into votes for BN and PN.
"The real challenge now is no longer gaining voter acceptance, but how both parties can sit at the same table, negotiate and reach a compromise on seat allocation," he told Sinar.
He said this forms a wave or referendum among Malay voters that puts pressure on both parties to continue their cooperation in future elections.
He views the Negeri Sembilan state election as the first test of the BN-PN formula, though the true test will only begin when both parties face tougher negotiations ahead of the Melaka State Election.
If those negotiations fail, he said, it not only risks triggering clashes among themselves, but could also disappoint Malay voters who have sent a clear signal that they want the cooperation to continue.
"I feel BN and PN have no choice but to organise a better coalition leading up to the Melaka state election.
"Pakatan Harapan's (PH) biggest challenge, meanwhile, is how to defend its position as the wave of Malay-Muslim unity grows larger," he said.
He stated that the signal from voters is clear enough and it is now up to the party leadership to find a formula acceptable to both sides, including on the matter of seat distribution.
The results of the Negeri Sembilan state election also left behind political symbolism when two key PH leaders were defeated in their respective arenas, consequently raising questions about the party's strategy in facing changing patterns of voter support.
According to Hisommudin, the defeat of former menteri besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun in Linggi and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke in Chennah occurred under different circumstances.
He said in Linggi, Aminuddin was actually contesting a seat that was unfavourable to him from the outset, based on the combined strength of the BN and PN vote.
Despite entering the arena with the advantage of being the Port Dickson MP and Menteri Besar, those factors were insufficient to overcome the election 'mathematics' advantage held by the opposing coalition.
"On paper, it was indeed difficult for him to cross the victory line. He took a brave step to go against the tide in the hope that his position as MP and menteri besar would help, but that did not happen," he said.
In Chennah, he said Loke's defeat stemmed from a shift in Malay voter support patterns.
Previously, Anthony received a small spillover of Malay votes as a result of the PH and BN cooperation, alongside enjoying near-maximum support from Chinese voters.
However, this time, the consolidation of Malay votes towards the BN-PN coalition caused that advantage to disappear, thereby benefiting the MCA candidate.
Hisommudin said the defeat of the two figures certainly leaves room for a reassessment within their respective parties, but a leadership change specifically in Negeri Sembilan is not the main issue.
"For me, a change of leadership is part of party strategy. The core issue is that there must be a strategic shift to curb the advance of identity politics brought by BN and PN," he said.
He was of the view that the success of the BN-PN formula in Johor and Negeri Sembilan also gives a new dimension to national politics.
According to him, the consolidation of Malay votes between the two parties will pose a major challenge to PH because competition in Malay-majority areas no longer involves contests among BN and PN themselves.
He said this has implications for 165 Parliamentary seats in the Peninsula, the majority of which consist of Malay and mixed Malay areas.
Based on current projections, many seats currently held by PKR and Amanah will face a more challenging situation if the BN-PN cooperation continues.
However, he considers the most immediate impact to be not on the 16th General Election, but rather on political relations within the unity government.
He noted that if BN chooses to reassess its position in the government while carrying a narrative that rejects DAP and defeats PH, that situation could exert pressure on national political stability. The situation also has the potential to raise the political temperature and influence the stance of the Borneo bloc towards the government.
"If the Prime Minister is unable to resolve the situation effectively and there is no resolution in the near future, it is not impossible that the dissolution of Parliament could become an option," he said.