SHAH ALAM – A fresh Negeri Sembilan state election could change the political balance in the state assembly, but it may not resolve the deeper dispute between the state government and the palace, political analysts say.
The crisis has increasingly moved beyond a question of who commands the majority in the 36-member state assembly, ascompeting positions now centred on the authority of the Menteri Besar, the Yang di-Pertuan Besar and the constitutional processes governing the state.
Political analyst Dr Bridget Welsh said another election could result in changes in voter support, particularly among Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters, but would not necessarily alter the underlying power dynamics.
“I understand there’s a crisis between the Menteri Besar and Yamtuan. But I don’t think another election would solve it because the power dynamics would still be the same, example Umno vs Tuanku Muhriz,” she told Sinar Daily.
Welsh said a fresh poll could nevertheless produce swings in support and higher voter turnout, with PH supporters potentially accounting for some of the movement.
“I do believe there will be swings in support and higher turnout, with swings most among PH supporters,” she said.
The question, she added, would be whether Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) could retain a combined majority under a new electoral mandate.
“It is complicated as there may be the evolution of competing governments, but from the perspective of the current ruler and current composition, the issue will be whether a majority can be retained by BN and PN,” Welsh said.
She pointed to the narrow margins recorded in some constituencies, including Chennah and Pilah, as evidence that relatively small shifts in voter support could affect the composition of the assembly.
The current numbers, however, already give BN and PN a combined 25 of the 36 seats, compared with PH's 11. BN holds 18 seats while PN has seven.
A new election could alter the political arithmetic, but the central dispute may remain if the competing sides continue to hold fundamentally different positions over the authority of the state government and the palace.
Meanwhile, Dr Syaza Shukri questioned whether another election was necessary so soon after the Aug 1 state election, arguing that the immediate concern should instead be the ability of the state administration to function.
“It doesn’t make a lot of sense so soon after the last state election. The state government cannot function properly. State civil servants don’t know who has authority, so it might lead to paralysis,” she said.
The Associate Professor of Political Science at International Islamic University Malaysia also warned that prolonged institutional uncertainty could affect public confidence in the political system, royal institution and constitutional framework.
The Attorney-General’s Chambers said on Sept 17 that the April 19 proclamation concerning Tuanku Muhriz's position was invalid because it did not comply with mandatory requirements under Article 10 of the Negeri Sembilan Constitution. It also said the Menteri Besar and state executive council did not have unilateral power to remove or vacate the position of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar.
The state government's position has nevertheless continued to clash with that of the palace.
On Sept 21, Menteri Besar Datuk Ismail Lasim disputed Tuanku Muhriz's revocation of the appointments of all 10 state executive councillors, arguing that the decision was unconstitutional because he had not advised or been consulted on their removal.
The dispute has therefore created a situation where an electoral mandate alone may not answer the underlying constitutional questions.
Election or legal process? For Syaza, the immediate solution should not necessarily be another trip to the ballot box.
She said the matter should instead be allowed to proceed through the judicial process, particularly where questions remain over the legality and constitutionality of actions taken by the various parties.
“I don’t think emergency is necessary because this is not something that directly affects people’s security. I think they should leave it to the judicial process,” she said.
If the Menteri Besar no longer commands majority support, Syaza said the constitutional mechanism could allow another elected representative who commands the confidence of the majority to form the government.
“If the MB has lost confidence then we can go for dissolution but I think the best is to find someone among those recently elected who can get support of the majority,” she said.
Her argument effectively separates two questions that have become intertwined in the Negeri Sembilan crisis: whether the Menteri Besar has the confidence of the assembly, and who has legitimate authority over the state's royal institution.
“All parties should refrain from making unilateral decisions and leave it to the court to decide on the earlier cases then we can trace the constitutionality of decisions.
“At the end of the day everyone should respect the state constitution and not turn it into a political power play," she said.
Would another mandate change anything? The call for dissolution has nevertheless emerged from within the political sphere.
Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) has called on Ismail to seek the dissolution of the state assembly amid the continuing dispute between the state government and palace.
Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah) has urged Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Datuk Ismail Lasim to seek the dissolution of the Negeri Sembilan State Legislative Assembly (DUN) following the crisis that continues to worsen in the state.
Its secretary-general Muhammad Faiz Fadzil said this was because the clash between the executive and the palace ran contrary to the spirit and principles of the Negeri Sembilan State Constitution (UUTKNS) 1959.
He said Amanah believes that political turmoil which is poorly managed by Umno could threaten the stability of the state government's administration.
But a fresh election would essentially return the dispute to voters only weeks after the previous election.
The Aug 1 election was itself held ahead of the assembly's full term following the earlier political and royal disputes that contributed to the collapse of the previous state government. The election produced 18 BN seats, 11 PH seats and seven PN seats.
A new result could therefore change the balance of power, particularly in closely contested constituencies.
But unless the election produces a political configuration that also resolves the question of who can legitimately exercise executive authority, the state could find itself confronting a different assembly with the same constitutional dispute.