SHAH ALAM - A third consecutive state-election victory in Melaka could strengthen Barisan Nasional’s (BN) claim that it is recovering from its electoral setback in 2018, but political analysts caution that success in southern Peninsular Malaysia would not necessarily translate into a nationwide resurgence.
International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said BN’s performance in Melaka would need to be assessed in the context of regional political differences, particularly the stronger influence of Pas in states north of Selangor.
“A third consecutive state-election victory in Melaka would indicate that BN is regaining strength after reaching a low point in 2018.
“Nevertheless, I believe we must be cautious about interpreting these results as evidence of a broader national recovery, as the three states involved so far are all in southern Peninsular Malaysia.
“We cannot assume that the so-called ‘Blue Wave’ will extend north of Selangor, where Pas is more dominant. This makes cooperation between BN and Perikatan Nasional (PN) important if they hope to expand their electoral influence beyond the southern states,” she told Sinar Daily.
Syaza emphasised that state-election results might not necessarily reflect voting patterns in a general election, as voters could make different choices depending on whether they were electing state or federal governments.
Voters might choose to punish Pakatan Harapan (PH) at the state level while still considering the coalition the best available option to lead the federal government.
“Nevertheless, PH’s position is undoubtedly weakening and the coalition should neither take the results for granted nor dismiss them as unrepresentative of the country.
“Voters who support other parties at the state level remain Malaysian citizens whose concerns and electoral choices must be taken seriously,” she added.
She also said BN and PN should continue using the Malay unity narrative as an electoral strategy, given its success in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.
With both coalitions seeking to strengthen their electoral prospects in Melaka, she said she saw little reason to abandon an approach that has worked.
However, she emphasised that sustaining the narrative depends on cooperation between BN and PN, warning that a failure to work together could undermine the strategy.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun similarly said the Malay unity narrative could remain influential in rural constituencies, where BN was likely to secure most seats, while PH would need a different approach to compete in urban areas, although it could still win some seats there.
He added that PN could also win several seats if it contested the election by capitalising on the Malay unity narrative.
However, Oh cautioned BN against assuming that its previous state-election victories would guarantee continued electoral success, highlighting the differences between its performance in state polls and the subsequent general election.
“BN should be cautious about interpreting its previous victories as an indication of future electoral success. BN won big in Melaka in 2021 and Johor in 2022, but subsequently lost the general election.
“Therefore, those victories should not be taken as a guarantee of strong performance in the next general election,” he said when contacted.