SHAH ALAM – Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional’s (PN) gains in the Melaka state election appear to reflect the appeal of Malay-Muslim unity rather than a broader political shift towards the ruling coalition, political analysts say.
They said the cooperation between Umno and Pas had helped consolidate Malay support, particularly in southern states where both parties have traditionally sought to strengthen their political influence.
Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said the results should not be interpreted as a blue wave, but rather as evidence that the narrative of Malay unity had gained traction among voters.
He said some Malay voters had viewed successive governments since 2018 as insufficiently Malay-centric, strengthening calls for a government that they perceived as better representing Malay interests.
“We saw this during the administrations of Muhyiddin Yassin and Ismail Sabri Yaakob, although that period only lasted about two years. I think this sentiment has become stronger recently,” he said.
Oh said the so-called grand Malay unity formula appeared to combine Umno’s racial and financial influence with Pas’ religious appeal, creating a political arrangement that could attract a wider section of Malay voters.
He added that the formula had helped Pas make inroads into Johor, Melaka and Negeri Sembilan, states where the party had traditionally struggled to establish a strong foothold.
Although Pas did not win any seats in Johor, its victories in Melaka and Negeri Sembilan indicated that its influence was extending beyond its traditional strongholds, he said.
Oh, however, cautioned against interpreting the results as a straightforward endorsement of Umno, arguing that the party was benefiting considerably from Pas’ support.
“I also don't think this is necessarily a vote of confidence in Umno. Rather, Umno is benefiting from Pas' support, while Pas is also benefiting from some of Umno's support. However, I would say Umno is benefiting more from Pas than the other way around,” he said.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Mazlan Ali said the three consecutive victories in Johor, Negeri Sembilan and Melaka were not enough to establish a sustained blue wave ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).
He said the three states were traditional Umno strongholds, where cooperation between Umno and Pas could consolidate Malay support and generate a Malay-Muslim voting bloc.
Mazlan noted that the political momentum might not translate into similar outcomes in Selangor and the Federal Territories because of their different demographic make-up.
He said the Melaka results were influenced by two main factors, including the unity between Umno and Pas and dissatisfaction with certain policies under the Madani government.
Among the concerns, he said, were issues affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as well as perceptions among local business owners that they had not benefited from the large investment figures announced by the government.
Mazlan pointed to the Duyung state constituency, where Malay voters made up about 60 per cent of the electorate, as an indication of a possible shift in Chinese support towards BN.
He said the unity-of-the-ummah approach was likely to remain part of the political strategy leading up to GE16, having proven effective in consolidating Malay votes in the three states.
“I believe the 'unification of the ummah' formula which has proven successful in consolidating Malay votes to oust Pakatan Harapan in three states will continue to be employed leading up to the 16th General Election (GE16),” he added.
However, both analysts cautioned that electoral cooperation between Umno and Pas did not necessarily mean the two parties would be able to govern together smoothly at the federal level.
Oh said disagreements could emerge over the choice of prime minister, while internal factional divisions within both parties could further complicate any future arrangement.
Mazlan also warned that their cooperation remained vulnerable because both parties were direct competitors in Malay-Muslim majority constituencies, particularly when it came to seat allocations.
“Their ability to govern together is far from guaranteed; in fact, a return to conflict remains highly likely. Because Pas and Umno are direct rivals in Malay-Muslim majority constituencies, failing to manage their competition particularly over seat allocations carries a high risk of another split,” he said.