Split personality? Indonesian voters separate party and candidate preferences
Ruling party leads in Parliament, faces setback in presidency
THE preliminary results of the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election (Pilpres 2024) offer insight into the dynamics of the country's electorate as they pick their leaders.
Looking back at the 2019 General Election (Pemilu 2019), Indonesia's secular-nationalist political party, the Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P), secured 128 out of 575 contested seats, establishing itself as the largest governing party in the People's Representative Council (DPR).
Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi and also affiliated with PDI-P, emerged victorious in the presidential race, solidifying the party's dominance.
However, the landscape has shifted in this year's presidential election, with PDI-P still leading in the general election but its presidential and vice-presidential candidates, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md, trailing behind.
According to the quick tally conducted by the Indonesian Political Indicator, PDI-P garnered 16.68 per cent of the vote, securing the top spot, followed by Partai Golkar with 15.21 per cent and Partai Gerindra with 13.44 per cent.
The Jakarta Post Editor-in-Chief Taufiq Rahman said in an interview that the current scenario is intriguing, indicating that Indonesian voters prioritise the candidates' personality in presidential and vice-presidential elections, while focusing on parties when selecting parliamentary representatives.
He noted that analysts describe this phenomenon more as a split personality than a political tsunami, a situation uncommon except in specific cases or regions.
For instance, according to the quick tally, Bali, a stronghold of PDI-P, experienced defeat in the presidential election but emerged victorious in the DPR election.
This deviation from the norm is attributed to the significant influence of Jokowi, who successfully defied traditional party lines.
Conflicts within PDI-P led to perceptions of the President being marginalised by his own party, culminating in his open support for Prabowo Subianto as the presidential candidate and his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as the Vice President.
The move by Jokowi resonated with voters, particularly those within PDI-P, shifting their support towards Prabowo.
In the past presidential elections, Jokowi overwhelmingly won Bali, with approximately 90 per cent of voters supporting PDI-P.
Another contributing factor to Prabowo and Gibran's victory is the support from the Javanese population.
With over 40 per cent of the country's largest ethnic group being Javanese, Prabowo's Javanese heritage facilitated his connection with voters, particularly in provinces like East Java and Central Java, where he has enjoyed popularity since the 2014 General Election.
Prabowo's background as a former Indonesian National Army General with ties to President Soeharto's family has enhanced his image, especially among voters in Java.
Given Java's significant population, a presidential candidate's success hinges on securing votes from Javanese regions, particularly Central Java and East Java, which together account for a substantial portion of the electorate in Indonesia's electoral landscape.
