'Bersatu needs Pas more than Pas needs Bersatu' - Analysts

SHAH ALAM - Pas' decision to distance itself from Bersatu is being increasingly viewed not as a sudden break, but as the formalisation of a political reality that has long existed within Malaysia’s opposition landscape.

Analysts suggest that Pas has emerged as the dominant force within Perikatan Nasional (PN), while Bersatu’s influence has gradually weakened, making it more reliant on Pas than the other way around.

This shift is seen as reinforcing an existing imbalance of power within PN, with recent developments effectively making official what has already been the prevailing dynamic within the coalition.

Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said the current trajectory reflects both a negotiating strategy and a broader recalibration of Pas' political positioning ahead of the next general election.

He explained that an electoral pact, in the Malaysian context, typically refers to structured cooperation between parties aimed at avoiding direct competition in selected constituencies.

“In this context, an electoral pact would most likely involve a non-competition arrangement between Pas and other parties it considers suitable for cooperation.

“The objective would be to maximise each party’s chances of winning seats by avoiding direct contests against one another, while potentially creating a foundation for post-election coalition formation,” he said in an interview with Sinar Daily.

Oh noted that Pas appears to be keeping its strategic options open, including the possibility of maintaining Bersatu within PN, but only under revised internal dynamics.

This move appears to be both a negotiating strategy and a genuine effort to explore alternative political alignments.

“Pas may still be willing to retain Bersatu within PN if Bersatu accepts a subordinate position in the coalition. However, if Bersatu continues to project itself as the dominant force within PN, tensions between the two parties could intensify.

“In many ways, Pas is simply formalising what has long been perceived by both the party and a significant portion of the electorate: that Bersatu needs Pas more than Pas needs Bersatu.

“The latest developments further increase pressure on Bersatu, particularly after the departure of Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, which has weakened the party’s position.

“Beyond Bersatu, other parties, including Umno, could also emerge as potential partners under a new electoral arrangement.

“As for the future of PN, the coalition could continue to exist if it becomes clearly Pas-led. Otherwise, it risks remaining only a nominal coalition without a stable or coherent political structure behind it,” he added.

Oh further stressed that Pas' strategic calculus remains fundamentally driven by electoral advantage, regardless of whether it contests independently or within an alliance.

Like any political party, Oh said Pas will seek to maximise its seat tally in the next general election (GE) to strengthen its bargaining position in any post-election negotiations.

However, he cautioned that Malaysia’s political environment remains highly fluid, making firm predictions difficult.

“However, drawing firm conclusions at this stage remains difficult because Malaysian politics has become increasingly fluid and unpredictable.

“Major shifts, reversals and last-minute political realignments remain entirely possible and could significantly alter the current political landscape,” he said.

Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin (left) and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri offered a complementary perspective, defining electoral pacts as informal yet strategic arrangements between parties.

She defines an electoral pact generally as an agreement between political parties or coalitions not to contest against one another in specific constituencies during an election.

Its primary purpose is to avoid multi-cornered contests that could benefit a common ideological opponent. Unlike a formal political coalition, an electoral pact does not necessarily require official registration or a structured alliance between the parties involved.

Syaza said the latest political signals suggest Pas is not merely strengthening its position within PN, but actively exploring alternative configurations that may extend beyond the coalition.

“This latest announcement is unlikely to be about strengthening Pas' position within the PN, as Pas is already the dominant party in the coalition. Instead, it appears to signal that Pas is exploring a different political alignment, most likely involving Umno and Hamzah.

“Since Umno remains part of Barisan Nasional (BN) and cannot join PN, the move seems less focused on PN itself and more on the possibility of alternative political arrangements,” she said.

She added that Pas has reached a stage where it no longer depends on Bersatu to the same extent that Bersatu depends on Pas.

According to her, Pas has consistently been the strongest force within PN, a position that has become even more evident since Pas assumed the coalition’s chairmanship.

As a result, if Pas chooses to cooperate with other Malay-based parties, it does not necessarily require Bersatu to preserve its political influence or electoral strength.

“The most realistic option for Pas appears to be cooperation with Umno and Hamzah. Such an arrangement could help prevent direct contests in Malay-majority constituencies and reduce vote splitting among Malay voters.

“At the same time, Pas is still expected to remain within PN and it is possible that the party could seek to bring Hamzah into the coalition as part of a broader political strategy.

“This development could have significant implications for Bersatu. Without Bersatu, PN would effectively become a coalition dominated by Pas. Bersatu, meanwhile, may be forced to seek an alternative political platform,” she said.

Both analysts agree that Pas' current positioning reflects not a temporary rupture, but a broader realignment within Malaysia’s Malay political ecosystem, where coalition structures are increasingly fluid and driven by electoral arithmetic rather than fixed alliances.