BN still holds edge, but PH, PN and smaller parties face different challenges in Johor polls - Analysts

JOHOR BAHRU - Barisan Nasional (BN) remains the coalition to beat in the Johor state election, although analysts say Pakatan Harapan (PH), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and smaller parties each face distinct challenges in convincing voters they are viable alternatives.

Political analyst Dr Sharmin Kutty Sivaraman said BN has successfully positioned itself as the coalition best placed to preserve Johor’s economic momentum and ensure continuity in government.

"BN presented itself as the coalition best placed to sustain economic progress and ensure stability in administration," he told Sinar Daily.

However, he said many voters, especially in competitive constituencies, remain concerned about whether economic growth has translated into improvements in their daily lives, including the cost of living, wages and access to opportunities.

"The decisive question is whether voters see continuity as something worth protecting or whether they believe change is necessary to produce better outcomes," he said.

Sharmin added that BN faces a tougher contest compared with the 2022 Johor election due to the larger number of parties contesting.

"The competition is much tighter this time, requiring BN to work harder on the ground to sustain support," he said.

Commenting further, political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said BN’s advantage was strengthened by the leadership of caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi and the coalition’s track record in governing Johor.

"The BN government under the administration of Onn Hafiz has successfully steered Johor towards rapid progress and development.

"By having a stable government, Johor BN has convinced the people that it deserves another mandate," he said.

Mazlan said a significant segment of Malay voters continues to support Umno and BN because of the party's record of bringing progress and stability.

"I am confident the people of Johor will give their trust to BN to continue governing for another term," he added.

Both analysts also believe smaller parties such as Muda and Bersama may struggle to convert campaign visibility into electoral victories.

Meanwhile, Sharmin said while the parties have injected fresh competition into the campaign, particularly among younger and urban voters, their biggest challenge is turning that support into actual seats.

"They have made an impact on the campaign, but polling day will determine whether that impact represents the beginning of a new political force or simply further fragmentation of the opposition vote," he said.

Mazlan echoed the view, saying smaller parties face an uphill battle in converting support into electoral gains.

"They are unlikely to win many seats and face a high risk of losing their election deposits," he said.