BN-PN cooperation put to the test ahead of GE16

SHAH ALAM – The emerging cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) in recent elections could reshape Malaysia's political landscape, although it is still too early to regard it as a winning formula for any political coalition.

Following the Johor state election, which saw Malay voter support shift towards BN in several constituencies after directives from Pas leadership, a similar trend now appears to be unfolding in Negeri Sembilan.

The development has raised questions over whether cooperation between the two coalitions could pave the way for a new political alignment ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16), or whether it is merely a temporary strategy to avoid clashes between opposition parties.

Senior political science lecturer at Universiti Teknologi MARA's (UiTM) Faculty of Administrative Science and Policy Studies Mujibu Abd Muis said the cooperation in Negeri Sembilan is currently more tactical than a genuine political alliance.

According to him, the primary objective is to maximise anti-Pakatan Harapan (PH) votes rather than establish a broad-based political coalition.

"The BN-PN cooperation in Negeri Sembilan is still too premature to be regarded as a proven winning formula.

"If Bersatu does indeed contest under its own logo, it shows there is still a desire to preserve each party's identity and political space.

"This is important because in elections, votes do not automatically transfer simply because party leaders have reached an agreement," he told Sinar on Thursday.

Mujibu said voters remain influenced by party identity, historical rivalries and perceptions of individual candidates, adding that the success of the cooperation would depend on how willing grassroots supporters are to accept such compromises.

Previously, BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said during the launch of the coalition's election machinery and candidate announcement for the Negeri Sembilan state election that details of the cooperation with PN would be announced soon.

He said the remaining 11 out of the state's 36 State Legislative Assembly seats, which BN had yet to announce candidates for, would be determined through discussions with its counterpart.

BN deputy chairman Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan also said the coalition had announced only 25 candidates as it was still awaiting the outcome of negotiations with its "partner."

Commenting on whether the same formula could be replicated in Melaka and other states, Mujibu said each state has its own unique political realities and should not be viewed through the same lens.

He noted that differences in ethnic composition, political culture and electoral history mean that a strategy successful in one state may not necessarily work elsewhere.

"What works in Johor or Negeri Sembilan may not succeed in Melaka. Political parties need to assess local strengths, electoral history and voter acceptance before repeating the same formula.

"I believe this kind of cooperation has greater potential in states with many marginal seats and three-cornered contests that could split the vote," he said.

On the possibility of expanding the cooperation ahead of GE16, Mujibu said the challenges would be far greater than those faced in state elections, although opportunities remain if both sides are willing to compromise.

He said forming the federal government involves more complex issues, including seat allocations, the choice of prime ministerial candidate, power-sharing arrangements and coalition leadership.

"These are issues that do not arise in tactical cooperation involving only several state seats. BN and PN are still competing for the same segment of Malay voters.

"As long as the question of who will lead the coalition remains unresolved, it will be difficult to establish a truly stable partnership at the national level.

"Political competition may no longer revolve around three major blocs such as BN, PH and PN, but instead evolve into a contest between two major coalitions," he said.

In light of this, Mujibu said PH must broaden its cross-ethnic support base and strengthen its position in mixed constituencies, while BN and PN would need to prove that their cooperation could deliver a stable and effective administration.