Johor victory gives BN edge, but Negeri Sembilan remains wide open

SEREMBAN: Barisan Nasional’s (BN) Johor landslide has shifted focus to Negeri Sembilan, where the coalition hopes to repeat its success against Pakatan Harapan (PH).

However, analysts caution that the state presents a different electoral landscape, shaped by PH’s incumbency, local issues and a three-way contest with Perikatan Nasional (PN).

Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman political science lecturer Dr Afi Rozhesry said BN has emerged as the frontrunner following its Johor performance, but warned that the race is expected to be more competitive.

He said PH is likely to retain stronger support in urban and mixed constituencies, while voter turnout and performance in marginal seats could ultimately determine the outcome.

“BN can carry substantial momentum from Johor … However, that does not guarantee a landslide victory,” he said.

Dr Afi said PH could highlight political stability, investment growth and improvements in income during its administration. However, he noted that concerns over the cost of living, wages and economic growth could influence voters’ decisions.

He pointed out that Negeri Sembilan’s economic growth slowed from 4.6 per cent in 2024 to 2.6 per cent in 2025, while political uncertainties could also affect public perception.

“There is still uncertainty over the involvement of certain political parties in the election. Without reliable polling data, it is difficult to determine whether these achievements are enough to secure a third-term mandate for PH,” he said.

Dr Afi said BN’s strengths include its strong grassroots machinery, experienced leadership and renewed confidence following its recent electoral victories.

However, he said Umno’s decision to withdraw support from the Aminuddin administration during the previous political crisis could remain an issue for voters.

“BN’s strongest argument is that it can provide a more decisive and experienced government. However, its biggest weakness is Umno’s previous withdrawal of support from the Aminuddin Harun administration, which contributed to the political crisis and could affect its message of stability,” he said.

The constitutional and royal dispute that led to the collapse of the previous state administration is also expected to become part of the election conversation.

Dr Afi said voters would assess whether PH handled the issue responsibly and whether BN’s position was driven by concerns over the royal institution or political considerations.

However, he believed economic concerns would remain a bigger factor in influencing overall voter behaviour.

“Overall, economic concerns will have a greater impact on the statewide vote, while constitutional controversies may influence marginal seats and reinforce existing party loyalties,” he said.

Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said BN’s Johor victory should not be viewed as a direct template for Negeri Sembilan, as both states have different political dynamics.

He said Johor benefited from its position as a traditional BN stronghold, as well as the popularity of Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, whose administration had gained support through investment growth and economic development.

“Johor is unique in being a fortress state for BN, and Onn Hafiz is a well-received BN poster boy even among some PH supporters.

“Under his leadership, Johor has undeniably seen significant foreign investment and economic development,” he said.

However, Dr Oh said Negeri Sembilan had a more fragmented political landscape and lacked a similar figure who could generate strong public confidence.

“The same cannot necessarily be said about Negeri Sembilan, which has a more fragmented political landscape shaped by power struggles at various levels.

"After only one term, Aminuddin’s performance is at best moderate and does not create the same level of confidence and popularity as Onn Hafiz,” he said.

He said voters appeared to be looking for stronger political leadership, but no coalition had so far presented a figure capable of inspiring overwhelming confidence among the electorate.

“Voters are looking forward to genuine and powerful political leadership, but surveying the current political landscape, there is no commanding political figure who can inspire confidence,” he said.

Dr Oh added that economic issues and livelihood concerns would remain crucial, as voters would ultimately judge parties based on their ability to improve daily living conditions.

“It is not as if any of the competing coalitions have brought forward significantly stronger proposals that can immediately improve people’s livelihoods,” he said.

Meanwhile, PN is expected to remain an important factor in the election despite suffering a complete defeat in Johor.

Dr Afi said PN remained competitive in Negeri Sembilan after winning five of the state’s 36 seats in the previous election and securing around 37.7 per cent of the popular vote.

However, he said internal challenges involving PAS and Bersatu, as well as organisational issues, could affect its performance.

“PN is still expected to remain competitive in several Malay-majority constituencies and could influence the overall outcome by splitting the Malay vote,” he said.

Dr Oh said PN’s immediate focus should be on defending its existing seats rather than expecting a major breakthrough.

He said Malay voters would likely remain divided between those who are more moderate and those who lean towards more conservative and nationalist positions.

Malay voter sentiment is expected to be a major battleground in the election. Of Negeri Sembilan’s 36 state seats, around 23 are Malay-majority constituencies, while 19 seats are needed to form the government.

Dr Afi said BN appears best positioned to benefit from Malay voter support due to Umno’s long-established grassroots network, particularly in rural areas.

However, he said PN could continue attracting support among voters concerned about issues involving religion, Malay interests and the rising cost of living.

PH, meanwhile, could benefit if BN and PN split Malay votes while maintaining support in urban and mixed constituencies.

Looking ahead to the next general election, Dr Afi said a BN victory in Negeri Sembilan would strengthen the perception that the coalition is regaining political ground.

However, he said it would not be enough on its own to confirm a wider national political realignment.

“A BN victory in Negeri Sembilan would strengthen the perception that Johor was not an isolated case but part of a wider political trend,” he said.

“However, any claim of a national realignment would still need to be confirmed through future elections in other key states such as Selangor, Perak and Penang, where competition in mixed and urban constituencies remains intense.”

Dr Oh also cautioned BN against overinterpreting state election victories as a guarantee of national success.

He said while BN’s victories in Melaka and Johor had strengthened its position, previous state-level successes did not automatically translate into a strong performance in general elections.

“Winning Melaka and Johor handsomely did not prevent BN from suffering a major setback in the subsequent general election,” he said.