Two possible scenarios if DAP exits unity government
The more likely scenario would see DAP leaving PH for political or strategic reasons while continuing to support the unity government in Parliament.
SHAH ALAM – DAP's upcoming decision on its position in the federal government does not automatically mean the unity government will collapse, with an analyst outlining two possible scenarios that could unfold after the party's National Congress on Aug 16.
Ilham Centre research fellow Mujibu Abd Muis said the congress, expected to be attended by nearly 4,000 delegates could result in either a political realignment without changing the government or a complete withdrawal of parliamentary support with more serious consequences.
On Monday, DAP announced it would determine its position in the federal government through a motion to be tabled at its National Congress.
Secretary-general Anthony Loke said the motion would be debated and decided by nearly 4,000 eligible delegates attending the congress.
According to Mujibu, the more likely scenario would see DAP leaving Pakatan Harapan (PH) for political or strategic reasons while continuing to support the unity government in Parliament.
"In this situation, the government would still have the opportunity to continue governing as long as the majority of Members of Parliament (MP) continue to support the Prime Minister.
"This scenario would be more of a political realignment rather than a change of government," he told Sinar.
Mujibu said renegotiating political ties or restructuring DAP's role within the unity government would be a more realistic course of action than the party withdrawing its support altogether.
He explained that DAP is aware that toppling the government would not only risk political and economic instability but could also trigger a new political realignment that may not work in its favour.
As a result, any differences are more likely to be resolved through negotiations over the party's position within the government rather than by pulling its support.
However, Mujibu cautioned that the implications would be far more significant if DAP were to withdraw its support in Parliament.
"That would depend entirely on whether the Prime Minister still commands a majority through the support of other parties or independent MPs.
"If the majority is lost, the government could face a vote of no confidence, the need to prove its majority in the Dewan Rakyat or ultimately the dissolution of Parliament if no new coalition is able to form a government," he said.
He also said another possible scenario would involve DAP withdrawing its ministers from the Cabinet while maintaining parliamentary support for the government.
Although permissible under the Westminster system, Mujibu said such an arrangement was uncommon in Malaysia.
"Under the Westminster system, a party may choose to leave the Cabinet while continuing to support the government in Parliament to ensure the government retains the majority needed to function.
"This approach could serve as a middle ground for DAP to demonstrate firmness to its supporters if differences over principles or policies arise, without taking the risk of bringing down the government.
"Under the current circumstances, the political cost of causing the government to collapse is far higher than simply withdrawing from the Cabinet.
“Such a situation could raise questions about the level of collective responsibility and create political pressure from supporters as well as other parties within the government.
"Therefore, if this scenario were to occur, I see it more as a mechanism for political pressure and renegotiation within the unity government, rather than a sign that the government would immediately collapse," he said.
Mujibu also reminded that any decision to withdraw support would carry political risks for all parties involved.
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