BN’s ‘Blue Wave’ momentum at risk if cooperation with PN stalls - Analysts

SHAH ALAM - Political analysts say Barisan Nasional’s (BN) momentum from its recent state election victories could lose steam if its proposed cooperation with Perikatan Nasional (PN) fails to materialise in Melaka.

They added that candidate appeal, local political dynamics and undecided voters would be key factors in determining the election outcome.

International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said the so-called “Blue Wave” depended partly on cooperation between BN and PN to consolidate Malay support, warning that prolonged uncertainty could undermine the momentum.

“I think BN's so-called ‘Blue Wave’ momentum could weaken the longer it takes the party to finalise its cooperation with PN, as its strength partly depends on unity between the two parties to secure Malay votes.

“If their cooperation fails to materialise in Melaka, I do not think the ‘Blue Wave’ will continue in the state or beyond and the outcome could instead return to the status quo seen in the 2021 Melaka state election,” she told Sinar Daily.

Syaza said local issues, voter sentiment towards the state administration, grassroots political dynamics and candidates’ appeal would be particularly important in determining the outcome of the state election.

While federal political developments and national party politics could influence voting patterns, she believed their impact would largely depend on how they filtered into local dynamics, as voters tended to make strategic decisions based on the candidates contesting in their respective constituencies.

“Ultimately, I think undecided voters, many of whom are younger voters, will remain crucial in determining the election outcome. Younger voters are quite polarised, with some claiming to be non-partisan and prioritising candidates they consider the best over party affiliations.

“However, their exposure to information on social media could lead them to swing against PH. Their voting preferences could therefore significantly influence the contest and determine the balance of power in the state,” she said.

Political analysts say BN’s momentum from recent state election victories could fade if its proposed cooperation with PN fails to materialise in Melaka. - Photo by Bernama

Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said BN’s “Blue Wave” momentum had weakened since its victories in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections several months ago.

However, he said the coalition remained capable of retaining the Melaka state government, albeit with a reduced majority and fewer seats.

“This will partly depend on whether BN reaches an agreement with Pas. If Pas contests the election and triggers three-cornered fights, BN could lose some seats to Pas, particularly in rural areas.

“Nevertheless, I believe BN can still secure a majority and retain the state government,” he said when contacted.

Oh also said the election outcome would provide Melaka Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh with an opportunity to demonstrate his political leadership at the ballot box.

However, he did not believe much had been achieved in the state over the past five years, adding that while BN continued to enjoy substantial support in the state, this was largely due to the party itself rather than Ab Rauf’s leadership.

Oh added that Pakatan Harapan (PH) would need to strengthen its election machinery following setbacks in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, but questioned whether the effort would be enough to maintain its previous performance.

“Following its setbacks in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, I expect PH to work hard to strengthen its election machinery in Melaka. However, whether these efforts will be sufficient remains to be seen. I believe PH would be fortunate to retain the same number of seats it won in the previous election.

“I believe voters from all backgrounds will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. The voting patterns of Chinese voters, particularly whether they turn out to support DAP or stay home, remain uncertain.

“Indian voters and rural Malay voters will also be important in deciding the election results,” he said.