KUALA LUMPUR - Attacks on United States (US) bases and facilities across several West Asian countries have exposed vulnerabilities in American installations and signalled a shift in the region’s strategic balance, an analyst said.
Associate Prof Dr Rahul Mishra of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of International Studies said Iran had acted with greater rationality in this conflict while at the same time demonstrating its capabilities.
"It is not that the American bases and facilities are immune to any attacks by the adversary, in this case, Iran.
"The balance of power in the region is also rapidly shifting, with the strategic equilibrium (balance) having kind of destabilised,” he said during the Bernama TV programme, Bernama World, recently.
Mishra, who is also a Senior Research Fellow at Thammasat University in Thailand, said the destabilisation of the strategic balance could have wider implications for the region. Despite Iran’s attempts to reassure Gulf neighbours that its strikes targeted American bases, concerns remain.
"The situation in the long run will become stabilised, but it will get worse before it gets better,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mishra said the US decision so far not to deploy ground troops to Iran reflects Washington’s strategy to keep the conflict at a minimum threshold while supporting Israel logistically and maintaining a strong military presence in Gulf countries.
"There are three very clear objectives that the US has in this conflict with Iran. First, keep the conflict at a minimum threshold level, do not let it escalate to a level where Iran is in direct confrontation with the US.
"Second, respect and implement their ironclad agreement with Israel by supporting Israel, whether it is in terms of logistics, supplies or intelligence sharing and third is to also tell allies and friends in the Gulf region and Israel that they have a direct, strong presence in the region,” he said.
However, Mishra said the US expectation of regime change in Iran has proven futile, as Tehran had already prepared new leadership and military commanders following the death of its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
"So the regime theory and regime change idea has failed and I think that should be seen as a failure for American long-term strategy in the region,” he added.
On the possibility of Russia and China becoming involved in the conflict, Mishra said both countries are likely to remain engaged diplomatically but are unlikely to intervene militarily.
Tensions in West Asia have remained high since Feb 28, when Israel and the United States launched strikes on Iran, prompting retaliatory attacks by Tehran against US interests in Gulf countries. - BERNAMA