SHAH ALAM – Recent hot weather has caused confusion among the public, with many attributing it to El Niño.
However, an expert has clarified that the conditions are not linked to the climate phenomenon but are part of Malaysia’s natural weather cycle.
Residents across Peninsular Malaysia, particularly in Kedah, Perlis and Kelantan, have been experiencing hot and dry conditions as the northeast monsoon, or musim Timur, approaches its end.
Institute of Ocean and Earth Sciences senior research fellow Professor Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah said such conditions are typical during this phase, when rainfall decreases and skies remain clear.
“The skies tend to be clear, resulting in intense solar radiation. This leads to higher daytime temperatures, but cooler nights due to the lack of cloud cover,” he said when contacted recently.
He stressed that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning it is not influencing the ongoing heat.
“We are not in an El Niño phase yet; we are still ENSO-neutral. Therefore, we are not experiencing the drier conditions typically associated with El Niño,” he added.
Instead, Azizan said the current heat is mainly driven by the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is now in its dry phase.
To simplify, he explained that the MJO acts like a moving “rain switch” across the region. When it is in a wet phase, it brings clouds and rain; when it shifts to a dry phase, skies become clearer and temperatures rise.
“The dry spell we are experiencing is influenced by our region being under the dry phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, which is forecast to end around April 5,” he said.
He added that ENSO, on the other hand, functions as a longer-term background driver of global weather patterns. As it is currently neutral, it is not contributing additional heat or dryness to Malaysia.
Azizan said weather conditions are expected to improve once the inter-monsoon period begins in April.
“Once the inter-monsoon period begins, we can expect more rain, especially along the west coast, which will bring increased cloud cover and lower temperatures,” he said.
He stated that other indicators, including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also point towards wetter conditions in the coming weeks.
“At present, the Indian Ocean Dipole is negative, so more rainfall is expected.
“With neutral ENSO and a negative IOD, April is likely to be wetter, with increased cloud cover, which is not conducive to high maximum temperatures,” he said.
Based on these factors, Azizan expressed confidence that the current heatwave will ease soon.
“I would expect a wetter April and the end of the heatwave by the first week of April,” he added.
Such weather patterns are not unusual, as the final phase of the northeast monsoon often brings reduced rainfall to northern parts of Peninsular Malaysia due to geographical and wind factors.
The northeast monsoon typically brings heavy rain to the east coast between November and February. However, towards its end, northern and north-western areas tend to become drier, with clearer skies and rising temperatures.
Authorities have advised the public to stay hydrated, limit outdoor activities during peak afternoon hours, wear appropriate clothing and use water wisely, as prolonged dry conditions may affect water supply and increase the risk of heat-related illnesses.