PETALING JAYA - Barisan Nasional (BN) is well-positioned to secure a two-thirds majority in the upcoming Johor state election, fueled by strong state governance and the immense popularity of caretaker Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi, according to independent think-tank Ilham Centre.
In a report released on Friday, the research firm projected that the ruling coalition is currently leading in 39 of Johor’s 56 state seats.
Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is expected to capture around nine seats, leaving eight highly contested constituencies, specifically Tenang, Tangkak, Maharani, Layang-Layang, Puteri Wangsa, Johor Jaya, Kota Iskandarand Bukit Batu, remaining up for grabs.
It noted that the state elections’ separation from a general election also provides Barisan a key advantage.
“State election voters are typically more focused on the state government's performance, administrative record and development delivery, unlike general elections, which are usually influenced by national sentiments.
“This has allowed Barisan to leverage its position as the state government without being heavily burdened by perceptions of the federal administration,” the think-tank said.
The study said its polls also found that Onn Hafiz’s popularity rating of 79 per cent was BN's strongest political asset for the upcoming election, far surpassing Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's 40 per cent rating among respondents.
"BN is also seen leading from the perspective of campaign acceptance by making the Menteri Besar's performance as the main proponent to attract voter support," the study added.
Meanwhile, it also found that Perikatan Nasional (PN) was no longer the main threat to Barisan compared with its performance during the 15th General Election (GE15) due to internal disputes involving Pas and Bersatu.
"The confusion regarding the coalition's direction, accompanied by the failure to present a clear narrative throughout the campaign, has weakened voters' confidence in PN's ability as a convincing alternative," it said.
The study noted that in several Malay-majority constituencies, Pas supporters also appeared more prepared to provide tactical support to BN rather than defend PN's hold on the seat.
The think-tank said PH's performance would also depend heavily on Chinese voter turnout, particularly in urban and semi-urban constituencies where the party has traditionally performed strongly.
"The mood among Chinese voters who are disappointed with PH's federal government performance has created a lacklustre campaign atmosphere," the study said.
It added that PH will require a voter turnout rate of at least 65 per cent among these voters to maintain its advantage in these constituencies.
The research also identified young voters, who make up 48 per cent of Johor's electorate, as a key but unpredictable group due to their candidate-focused voting behaviour, with many expected to make their decision only on the day of the election. - THE STAR