Three major elements to determine election results - Ilham Centre

SHAH ALAM - The election results in the six states are determined by three main elements: voter turnout rate, PH-BN (Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional) vote switching, and youth vote swing, says independent research firm, Ilham Centre.

The pollster revealed that how high or low the percentage of voter turnout will yield significantly different results in the elections.

It is, however, noted that state-level elections generally have a lower voter turnout percentage compared to general elections.

However, this turnout dynamic is not uniform, as it responds to various factors such as campaign strategies and ethnic group sentiment.

"As the political climate heats up, it will stimulate a higher voter turnout. But considering the current moderate conditions, it seems to navigate towards a lower percentage," the study said.

The second influential aspect materialises when two heavyweight coalitions, PH and BN, align forces within a Unity Government, thereby creating a head-on clash with Perikatan Nasional (PN).

This has posed as a considerable challenge to smaller parties and independent contenders, who struggle to challenge the sheer momentum generated by these two formidable alliances.

The study's observations have spotlighted intriguing variations in the attitudes of PH-BN supporters.

It is found that Umno members or BN supporters need to be more open to support PH in PH-contested constituencies.

"Over 27 per cent of the respondents state that it's difficult for them to cast their votes for the PH logo due to the DAP factor.

"This is the opposite of the observation made in BN constituencies where PH supporters in displaying flexibility in transferring their allegiance to BN in BN-contested constituencies" the study noted.

Ilham Centre also revealed that in the results of the 15th General Election (GE15), the pattern of support from young people, especially in the age range of 18 to 25 years, leaned towards PN.

The information gathered in this study verifies that this pattern still holds, and PH faces challenges in swaying and attracting support from this segment.

"Despite PM Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's aggressive engagement and meetings with youth on campuses, it appears insufficient to significantly change the percentage of their support towards the ruling party," Ilham Centre pointed out.