Perlis MB unlikely to resign, state polls seen as high risk - Analysts

SHAH ALAM - The newly appointed Perlis Menteri Besar is highly unlikely to resign or call for a fresh state election, despite recent political shifts, with analysts saying that constitutional realities, palace involvement and coalition calculations strongly favour the status quo.

Political analyst Professor James Chin said current Menteri Besar Abu Bakar Hamzah remained in a secure position because his appointment was made by the Raja of Perlis, making resignation an improbable outcome.

“The new Menteri Besar definitely will not resign because he was appointed by the Raja of Perlis. There is no way he will resign,” he told Sinar Daily.

He added that calling for a state election would be politically dangerous for the ruling coalition, particularly amid ongoing instability.

“It is highly unlikely they will go for a state election. A state election is too dangerous for them. My guess is they will simply carry on as they are currently,” he added.

Abu Bakar took the oath of office as the new Perlis Menteri Besar at 4.04pm on Sunday (Dec 28), following the resignation of his predecessor, Sanglang assemblyman Mohd Shukri Ramli, on Dec 25 due to health reasons.

Meanwhile, O2 Research Head Anis Anwar Suhaimi said the current arrangement was legally and procedurally sound, regardless of shifting party dynamics within the state assembly.

"From a constitutional and procedural standpoint, the current Menteri Besar’s position is already in force through the appointment by the Raja of Perlis,” he said.

He noted that Bersatu and Pas remained within the same registered coalition that contested the state election.

“So technically, even if Pas strengthens its numbers after the three by-elections, the Menteri Besar is still coming from a party that belongs to the same governing bloc,” he said.

Anis said the decisive factor was whether the state legislative assembly withdrew confidence in the Menteri Besar.

“As long as confidence is not withdrawn, the Menteri Besar can remain in office despite changes in numerical strength within the coalition,” he added.

Umno under pressure as Pas revives Muafakat Nasional

At the federal level, political pressure continued to mount on Umno as Pas signalled renewed interest in reviving Muafakat Nasional, contingent on Umno severing ties with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and DAP.

The push has placed Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi under increased scrutiny, particularly following backlash over Puchong MP Yeo Bee Yin being seen celebrating former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s legal predicament.

Several Umno divisions have since passed motions urging the party’s leadership to withdraw from the unity government, reflecting growing grassroots dissatisfaction.

However, Chin said Zahid was unlikely to yield to such pressure due to Umno’s strategic position within Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Madani administration.

“No matter how much pressure is put on Zahid to leave the coalition, he will try his best not to leave.

"At least under Anwar’s government, Umno is given key Cabinet positions. Under Muafakat Nasional or a Perikatan-led government, Umno would not have a dominant role. So Zahid has every incentive to stay with the unity government," he said.

On the other hand, Anis said Pas also faced significant risks if it pushed too aggressively for Muafakat Nasional, particularly if it creates instability or is perceived as challenging palace authority.

“There is no firm guarantee Umno would immediately exit the unity government and Pas must also be careful not to be seen as openly confrontational towards the palace.

"In Malay politics, appearing to clash with the palace is generally damaging and could backfire among voters," he said.

Given these constraints, Anis said it was difficult to see Perlis being turned into an early battlefield for a full reset.

"The more likely scenario is that existing arrangements are maintained until closer to 16th General Election, rather than forcing early realignments that carry high political risks,” he added.