Negeri Sembilan crisis a turning point for new political alignments in GE16?

SHAH ALAM – The political crisis in Negeri Sembilan has entered a complex deadlock, as power struggles collide with constitutional constraints and the unique customary system underpinning the state’s administration.

The withdrawal of support by 14 Barisan Nasional (BN) assemblymen from Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun has, in principle, opened the door for a change in government.

However, in reality, the process has stalled due to the framework of the Negeri Sembilan State Constitution 1959, Adat Perpatih customary law and the principles of the Federal Constitution.

From a constitutional standpoint, the appointment or removal of the Menteri Besar is subject to the consent of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar of Negeri Sembilan, Tuanku Muhriz Almarhum Tuanku Munawir, as well as the need to prove majority support or secure approval through a vote of no confidence in the state legislative assembly.

Yet both avenues are currently blocked – either due to disputes over the legitimacy of actions by the Undang Yang Empat in matters relating to the ruler, or the postponement of the State Legislative Assembly sitting, which prevents any formal test of majority support for the Menteri Besar.

Complicating matters further is the role of the Undang Yang Empat – who are responsible for selecting the Yang di-Pertuan Besar – as any declaration concerning the ruler’s position requires confirmation from the Menteri Besar.

This creates an overlap of interests, effectively binding both parties’ positions politically and constitutionally.

As a result, the state government is now operating as a minority administration without a clear mandate, while political manoeuvring among major parties remains fluid.

The deadlock not only tests the resilience of state institutions but could also have implications for federal political stability if not resolved in accordance with legal frameworks.

Ironically, the crisis has opened up several possible “endgame” scenarios that could rapidly reshape Negeri Sembilan’s political landscape.

Former Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar Tan Sri Dr Rais Yatim stressed that, from a legal perspective, Aminuddin’s position remains valid as long as he commands a simple majority, as provided under Article 2 of the state constitution.

“At this point, the Menteri Besar can continue to function even with only four executive councillors (Exco).

“His position remains intact as he still holds a simple majority,” he said.

However, the Adat Perpatih expert warned that the real test will come within the next two months when the State Legislative Assembly convenes.

“When a motion to test confidence in the Menteri Besar is tabled, if the majority of assemblymen vote to withdraw support, then a final decision must be made to appoint a new Menteri Besar,” he said, adding that the ruler’s role remains subject to Article 10(2) of the state constitution.

Backfire

Despite the technical legitimacy, political pressure on the key actors in the crisis is mounting.

Institut Darul Ehsan (IDE) Research Centre senior research director Khairul Arifin Mohd Munir described BN’s move as potentially backfiring in terms of public perception.

“The action is critically weakened by the admission that leadership only became aware of the crisis once it became public debate.

“This directly erodes the narrative of principled action,” he said.

According to Khairul, the political arithmetic is clear – Pakatan Harapan (PH) holds 17 seats, while a BN (14 seats) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) (five seats) alignment could form a simple majority of 19 seats in the State Legislative Assembly.

“In the social media ecosystem, narratives such as ‘BN betrayal’ or ‘power politics over principles’ spread faster than technical constitutional arguments,” he said.

He added that sentiment analysis shows 62 per cent of public reactions are negative towards BN, with support at risk of declining by up to 18 per cent within 90 days if no narrative intervention is made.

He warned that failure to manage public perception could have direct consequences ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).

“The outcome of this crisis will shape BN’s dominant narrative – whether as a stable partner or otherwise,” he said.

In an increasingly fluid post-election political landscape, one reality remains clear: whoever can prove majority support will determine the true “endgame” in Negeri Sembilan.

Deadlock

Meanwhile, political analyst and Ilham Centre research fellow Mujibu Abd Muis described the current situation as a “peculiar deadlock” – a government that continues to function, yet whose legitimacy is being questioned.

“Although it is described as a ‘minority government miracle’, logically, a Umno-PN alignment already has a majority.

“However, from a legal standpoint, it still needs to be formally proven,” he said.

He also referred to the 2009 Perak constitutional crisis as a precedent, where the determination of majority support was left to the ruler, as well as the possibility of dissolving the State Legislative Assembly, similar to what happened in Sabah during the 2020 state election.

Within this framework, several “endgame” scenarios are now seen as increasingly plausible.

Mujibu outlined the first scenario as a formal test in the State Legislative Assembly through a vote of no confidence, which could lawfully end the current administration.

“Second, the formation of a new government through a realignment of power between BN and PN – a scenario that is mathematically sufficient, but still fragile in terms of public legitimacy.

“Third, high-level political negotiations between PH and BN to preserve the unity government through compromise, including the possible appointment of a new Menteri Besar acceptable to all parties, with BN assemblymen reversing their stance.

“The most practical solution is negotiation. A minority government is not a long-term solution as it does not resolve legitimacy issues within a Westminster-style democracy,” he said.

According to Mujibu, the fourth scenario would involve dissolving the State Legislative Assembly to seek a fresh mandate from the people – an option that is the most drastic, but also carries high risks in terms of cost and current political and economic uncertainty.