Johor is a testing ground for Putrajaya

THE 16th Johor state election is not merely a contest for 56 State Legislative Assembly seats. Instead, it is a highly sensitive testing ground for the unity government ahead of the 16th general election (GE16).

For the first time since the formation of the unity government, Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) may potentially face each other in a state election while still sharing power in Putrajaya.

The outcome in Johor will serve as an indicator of whether the federal government’s political formula is still trusted by voters or beginning to show cracks.

The dissolution of the Johor state assembly on June 1 has paved the way for an election that must be held within 60 days.

Although the current mandate only expires in March 2027, the move is seen as an early strategy by BN to capitalise on current momentum, with the state administration led by Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi in a strong position.

In the 2022 state election, BN won 40 of the 56 seats, while PH secured 12 seats, Perikatan Nasional (PN) won three and Muda won one.

The unity government's biggest test

IDE Research Centre Senior Research Manager Khairul Ariffin Mohd Munir viewed the Johor state election as an indirect referendum on the stability of the unity government.

“At the federal level, the Johor state election will serve as an indirect referendum on the stability of the unity government. Although the state government is led by BN, both BN and PH are in the same federal administration in Putrajaya,” he told Sinar.

He said there are three main questions that will be tested through this election.

“First, whether the unity government formula can be translated into a state where BN remains strong.

“Second, whether Malay voters in Johor will continue to support Umno BN or shift towards PN.

“Third, whether urban and non Malay voters will prioritise PH or accept a political compromise with BN in the name of stability,” he said.

Ariffin said Johor is likely to be the most sensitive test for the unity government because it involves two parties sharing power in Putrajaya but potentially competing against each other.

He expects several implications if BN and PH contest separately.

“If BN and PH contest separately in many seats, it could create three effects.

“The unity government vote will be split, giving PN the opportunity to win marginal seats, especially in rural or semi-urban Malay areas.

“Second, PN may attack BN-PH by saying they are ‘together in Putrajaya but fighting in Johor’, creating the perception that the unity government lacks political discipline.

“Third, if campaigning becomes too aggressive between BN and PH, it could have a psychological impact on grassroots supporters in other states,” he said.

However, he believes this situation could also open the door to a new model of political cooperation between both parties.

“However, if BN and PH manage to reach a minimum understanding – whether through seat negotiations, a non-aggression agreement, or focusing on fighting PN in specific constituencies – then the Johor state election could become a new model of a ‘competitive but controlled’ relationship within the unity government,” he said.

For PH, the challenge is to maintain its own political identity without disrupting the harmony of the unity government.

“Even though BN insists on going solo, I still see PH hoping BN will reconsider. However, PH needs to move on quickly,” he said.

He added that PH should move beyond coalition disputes and instead present a more mature narrative focusing on governance, institutional reform, urban-rural inclusivity and public protection within the JS-SEZ economic framework.

Ariffin also noted that the emergence of the Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama), led by Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli, could influence voting patterns, particularly in urban and semi-urban areas traditionally dominated by PH.

Overall, he sees the Johor state election as the first real test of the political formula currently governing Putrajaya.

BN still holds the upper hand

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar believes that holding the state election early gives BN a significant advantage.

He said BN’s strength currently lies in its well-organised grassroots machinery, stable state administration, the image of Onn Hafiz as a young Menteri Besar and the effectiveness of the Maju Johor 2030 agenda.

“The strength of Umno-BN currently lies in the blessing of the Johor Palace, a well-structured grassroots machinery, a stable governance track record, the image of Onn Hafiz as a young Menteri Besar and the effectiveness of the Maju Johor 2030 agenda,” he said.

He added that Johor has recorded high investment inflows, including a record RM110 billion in 2025, linked to 24,584 new job opportunities.

However, he warned that BN’s solo strategy must be handled carefully so that Malay voters do not perceive BN as being too close to PH, potentially weakening its Malay political identity.

“BN’s possibility of surpassing its 40-seat performance from the 2022 state election is also lower if voter turnout increases from 54.92 per cent to above 75 per cent this time,” he said.

He added that although BN is in the strongest position, it must still prove that its solo strategy can translate into a larger victory.

He also noted the challenges faced by opposition parties such as PN, Bersama, Muda and the Reset movement.

“Bersama is expected to focus on urban and semi-urban seats and winning even one seat would already be considered a success.

“For Muda, it will be difficult for them to defend the Puteri Wangsa seat without a clear political alliance.

“As for the Reset movement led by former home minister Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin, I expect them to struggle to participate meaningfully as their political direction remains unclear,” he said.

Meanwhile, for PN, its chances of improving from three seats are affected by ongoing internal conflicts.

“If Bersatu risks leaving PN, Pas may find it difficult to lead PN in increasing its seat count.

“This is because Bersatu’s influence in Johor is relatively strong. Moreover, neither Pas, Bersatu nor PH has a truly strong state-based political narrative to offer Johor voters,” he said.