Trust, not ideology, biggest hurdle to Muafakat Nasional revival

SHAH ALAM – The idea of Malay-Muslim political cooperation continues to resonate with a segment of voters, but past political baggage and competing coalition interests make any return to Muafakat Nasional politically challenging.

Political observers say the core question is no longer whether Umno and PAS share common objectives, but whether sufficient trust remains for both parties to cooperate again after years of shifting alliances and electoral competition.

Universiti Utara Malaysia senior lecturer and political analyst Kamarul Zaman Yusoff said the appeal of Muafakat Nasional remains intact, given the deep grassroots networks and overlapping Malay support bases of both Umno and PAS.

However, he said the collapse of trust remains the central obstacle.

“The key issue is trust. Umno still remembers PAS’ cooperation with Bersatu, while PAS may question whether Umno is truly prepared to move away from its current cooperation with Pakatan Harapan at the federal level,” he said.

Kamarul said any revival of Muafakat Nasional would depend on whether Umno sees greater long-term benefit in returning to PAS cooperation than maintaining its position within the federal unity government.

His remarks come amid increasing tensions within Perikatan Nasional (PN), particularly involving PAS and Bersatu over coalition management and political direction.

However, Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said the challenge is fundamentally structural, arguing that Umno and PAS are locked in direct electoral competition despite periodic cooperation attempts.

He said a PAS–Umno pact would allow both parties to dominate Malay-majority constituencies by dividing seats, but this is precisely why it is unlikely to be sustainable.

“From Umno’s perspective, PAS is the strongest of its rivals. Any formal cooperation would strengthen PAS’s position while gradually weakening Umno’s dominance in northern states,” he said.

“Electorally, it is a rationally difficult arrangement for Umno to accept.”

Wong added that political cooperation between direct competitors rarely endures long-term because their voter bases overlap too significantly.

Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun said PAS may not even require a major Malay-Muslim partner to maintain or expand its electoral strength.

He said the party’s religiously grounded political identity is already strong enough to sustain support among increasingly conservative Malay voters.

“PAS may actually benefit more by avoiding entanglement with larger coalition partners and instead maintaining flexibility with smaller or non-traditional alliances,” he said.

Meanwhile, political analyst Anis Anwar Suhaimi said Bersatu may already be preparing alternative arrangements should tensions within PN escalate further.

He pointed to the Ikatan Perubahan Rakyat (IPR) framework as a possible platform for future cooperation involving Bersatu and other smaller parties.

However, he said any such realignment would depend on whether it can be presented as a broader political platform rather than a party-centric coalition.

“In such a scenario, the focus shifts away from restoring Bersatu’s dominance and instead towards a wider political agenda that multiple parties can rally behind,” he said.

Collectively, analysts said the PAS–Bersatu relationship is entering a more uncertain phase, with competing strategic interests and electoral calculations increasingly shaping the direction of the opposition bloc.

While a formal breakup remains unlikely in the immediate term, they said the relationship is clearly under strain, leaving both PN and any prospects of a Muafakat Nasional revival increasingly uncertain.