Reshuffle, replace, or snap polls? Analyst says Anwar has three options ahead of GE16

SHAH ALAM – Clashing views between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) leaders on a Cabinet reshuffle or an early dissolution of Parliament have placed Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim before a critical political choice ahead of the 16th General Election (GE16).

The Future Research fellow Muhammad Afifi Abdul Razak said Anwar has three paths forward: overhauling the Cabinet, filling the vacant Transport Minister post, or calling a snap election to seek a fresh mandate.

However, he said Anthony Loke's resignation as the Transport Minister does not threaten the government's majority and does not compel the Prime Minister to carry out a Cabinet reshuffle.

"Loke's resignation does not threaten the government's majority position, but it opens up larger questions regarding the cohesion of the unity government ahead of GE16," he told Sinar.

Afifi said there were arguments both supporting and opposing the need for a Cabinet reshuffle at this time, particularly given that the remainder of the administration's term is growing short.

"Those supporting a reshuffle argue that the Transport Ministry is a strategic portfolio requiring full leadership. Heading into GE16, a reshuffle could signal renewal and a reassessment of ministerial performance.

"Those opposing a reshuffle argue that the remaining term is short and that the last reshuffle was carried out only in December 2025.

"A major reshuffle during this period might not afford new ministers sufficient time to prove their performance and could even trigger renegotiations of quotas among coalition components," he said.

He added that filling the vacancy on a limited basis would guarantee administrative continuity, though it might be viewed as an attempt to evade broader questions concerning relationships between component parties.

Conversely, a full-scale reshuffle could signal renewal, but risks reopening political negotiations within the unity government.

"The final decision rests on whether the Prime Minister views this issue as an administrative matter or a broader political one," he said.

On Tuesday, Anwar indicated that it was still too early to discuss a Cabinet reshuffle when asked about the term of Finance Minister II Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan as a Member of the Senate (Dewan Negara), which expires on Dec 11.

However, on the same day, Deputy Prime Minister and BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi suggested that Parliament be dissolved rather than conducting a Cabinet reshuffle, to allow the public to grant a new mandate.

A day earlier, Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar had also hinted at the possibility of GE16 being held earlier should BN-PN cooperation prove successful in the Melaka state election on Nov 14.

Commenting on these developments, Afifi noted that the choice between a Cabinet reshuffle and an early dissolution reflects Anwar's assessment of coalition stability, the Melaka state election results and voter sentiment.

"In my view, it would be better if the Prime Minister consulted the Yang di-Pertuan Agong first.

"If a solution cannot be reached, it would be best to dissolve Parliament and secure a fresh mandate so that the government can become stronger," he said.