BN-PN cooperation could dethrone PH in GE16, analysts say

SHAH ALAM - The Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) combination could be strong enough to dethrone Pakatan Harapan (PH) in the 16th General Election (GE16), political analysts say.

Speaking to Sinar Daily, political analyst Professor James Chin said the Melaka state election results reflected a significant shift in Malay voter support, with closer cooperation between Umno and Pas potentially making the two coalitions a formidable electoral force.

He said the alliance could pave the way for a BN-led federal government, with Umno potentially returning to the prime minister's office and Pas securing the deputy prime minister's position.

"This Malay tsunami between Umno and Pas signals that this combination is almost unbeatable.

"For GE16, it signals that this combination is capable of dethroning Pakatan Harapan, with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim potentially out and replaced by an Umno prime minister, with Pas as the first deputy prime minister," he said.

Chin said the development should not be viewed solely through the lens of racial sentiment, but rather as the consolidation of Malay political support that had previously been divided between Umno and Pas.

He explained that both parties had traditionally competed for the same pool of Malay voters, but their closer cooperation could bring together an overwhelming majority of Malay voters in Peninsular Malaysia.

"It is not racial sentiment. It is very much that Umno and Pas voters, if you combine them together, form the overwhelming majority of Malay voters in Peninsular Malaysia.

"Previously, there was competition because they were fighting for each other. But now that they are combined, it becomes almost impossible to stop them," he said.

Chin also dismissed suggestions that former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak's influence was a major factor behind the latest political developments. He maintained that the 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal had lost much of its traction among the Malaysian public, particularly Malay voters.

On the immediate political implications, Chin said the outcome could put Anwar under mounting pressure from Umno to call for a general election.

He added that it could also intensify pressure on Anwar and PH, particularly DAP, to reconsider their cooperation with BN in the unity government.

Chin argued that it would become increasingly difficult to justify BN remaining in the government while simultaneously pursuing a political arrangement that could challenge Anwar's leadership.

Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said BN and PN should maintain their cooperation, given the electoral potential demonstrated by the arrangement.

She said a sustained partnership, supported by fair seat negotiations, could secure the two coalitions a significant plurality or even an outright majority in GE16.

"It signals that BN and PN should really do their best to keep this cooperation going forward because it has shown to be successful.

"If BN and PN can maintain the cooperation and negotiate seats fairly, it could easily lead to a plurality for BN-PN, if not an outright majority," she said.

Syaza said PH had historically struggled to secure strong support among Malay voters, with its previous electoral advantage partly stemming from the division between BN and PN.

She cited the 2021 Melaka state election as an example of how a three-way contest between the coalitions had given PH a better opportunity to win seats.

However, a united BN-PN front could significantly alter that electoral equation, leaving PH increasingly dependent on retaining non-Malay support to remain competitive.

"PH never really had a good chance with Malay voters. It is just that previously BN and PN were split and in a three-way contest, it led to the slim majority that we saw in 2021.

"But with BN and PN working together, PH's best chance is to retain as much of the non-Malay votes as possible," she said.

Syaza added that the cooperation could also appeal to Malay voters through the idea of penyatuan ummah (Muslim unity), which emphasises the consolidation of Malay-Muslim political leadership.

Barisan Nasional (BN) has retained power in Melaka with a landslide victory in the state election, carrying forward its momentum from the Johor and Negeri Sembilan polls.

Malay support consolidated after BN and PN agreed to cooperate. Together, the two secured 24 of the state’s 28 seats. That gives them more than a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.

BN won 21 seats, while PN took three through its component parties. Pas won two and Parti Wawasan Negara won one, which is its first seat in the state assembly.