SHAH ALAM - Pas' decision to sever ties with Bersatu is not merely an episode of division within Perikatan Nasional (PN), but part of a much bigger political calculation.
It is linked to efforts to form a new alignment with the camp of Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin as well as the possibility of reviving cooperation with Umno.
The move is not something surprising given that the good relationship between Pas and Hamzah has been established for several years.
Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said Pas is not particularly comfortable with the leadership of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, which is said to be heavily influenced by Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali.
"These two figures are among the reasons Pas can no longer remain under the PN umbrella together with Bersatu. That is why Pas has begun looking for arguments to rationalise its decision to sever ties," he told Sinar.
He said Pas intends to make PN a new platform together with Hamzah's group.
"In my opinion, they want Pas to become the core of PN and for Bersatu to be kicked out. Then, Hamzah's group would be brought back into PN.
"The proposal to accept Hamzah as a PN component had previously been raised in a coalition meeting but was rejected by Bersatu. That rejection is believed to be one of the factors that further worsened relations between the two sides," he said.
Hisommudin said the next dispute would focus on the issue of PN's ownership.
"I expect there will be a struggle over who owns PN. Once they have separated, they cannot stay in the same house.
"Pas has the potential to use its position as PN chairman to gain support from Gerakan and Malaysian Indian People Party (MIPP) to make a decision to expel Bersatu from the coalition," he said.
He said that seats previously allocated to Bersatu may be handed over to Hamzah's group to contest under the PN banner in the next election.
However, he said the major question that remains unanswered is Hamzah's official status, as the group does not have a legitimate political party that can serve as a PN component.
Besides strengthening ties with Hamzah's camp, Hisommudin said Pas is also exploring the possibility of reviving cooperation with Umno through the Malay-Muslim unity agenda.
However, he believed the proposal has yet to receive support from Umno's top leadership.
Meanwhile, the holder of the Malaysia Studies Chair at Victoria University, New Zealand, Professor Dr Kartini Aboo Talib @ Khalid, said Pas now has greater room to explore cooperation that provides political advantages to the party.
"If it chooses Hamzah's group, he does not carry the historical baggage that Umno and Pas have, giving the latter an opportunity to become the core party leading the Malay-Muslim narrative."
"At this moment, a 'reset' may be more pragmatic for Pas, allowing it not to be tied down by power rivalries, giving it the freedom to determine constituencies and candidates, while also potentially becoming the kingmaker after GE16," she said.
According to Kartini, as a party with strong influence in Kelantan, Terengganu and Kedah, Pas has a stable support base that enables it to negotiate with any party from a stronger position.
"Compared to its political partners, Pas has advantages in terms of machinery, grassroots support and a clear party identity.
"That is why Pas may feel it no longer needs to be tied to any particular party, but can instead choose the form of cooperation that is most beneficial ahead of GE16," she said.
She said the move would also allow Pas to reassess the party's actual strength among Malay voters without relying on the PN brand or Bersatu's strength.