By-elections: PH - BN victory lies on voters’ ethnicities
SHAH ALAM - The victory of Pakatan Harapan (PH), Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) relies on the ethnicities of people who vote today, say experts.
Universiti Teknologi Mara (UiTM) political analyst Dr Abdul Aziz Azizam said the outcome of the votes lies on the ethnicities who went out to vote in the by-election.
When asked about the possibility of PH and Umno winning, he said a small voter turnout percentage might favour the PH-BN coalition.
"This is due to the historically strong discipline exhibited by the Chinese community in supporting PH and Umno.
"However, it is imperative to exercise caution in making any assumptions regarding this by-election, as the outcome is subject to the actual composition of voters according to their respective ethnicities who turn out to vote," he told Sinar Daily.
Aaziz said there would be a shift in the voting dynamics if the victory of PH and BN occured with a significantly reduced majority.
"If support from the Chinese group is considered constant, then if the victory of PH-BN occurs with a significantly reduced majority, it can be inferred that there has been a shift in the voting dynamics, where the Malay population no longer supports PH-BN.
"Conversely, if the victory of PH-BN occurs with a large majority or remains consistent with previous results, it can be understood that there has been no significant change in the voting dynamics," he said.
Meanwhile, International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political analyst Dr Syaza Shukri said that if PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition wins in Johor, it showed that PH supporters were invested in the unity government.
"If BN-PH wins, it means that Johor is truly still a bastion of Umno similar to Negeri Sembilan and that supporters of PH are still invested in the unity government.
"If Perikatan Nasional (PN) wins, it means that the Malay swing to PN has truly spread across the country and BN-PH would be in a tough position to win over the Malays," she said.
