Ayer Kuning: BN projected winner, PH vote crucial - Study
However, the size of the majority will depend on how well its federal partner Pakatan Harapan (PH) can deliver support on the ground.
SHAH ALAM - Barisan Nasional (BN) is expected to retain the Ayer Kuning state seat in tomorrow’s by-election, according to a study by Ilham Centre.
However, the size of the majority will depend on how well its federal partner Pakatan Harapan (PH) can deliver support on the ground.
While BN is projected to win, the research outfit highlighted that Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad’s goal of an 18,000-vote majority has placed added pressure on both BN and PH campaign teams.
.Many voters interviewed believe the target may be hard to achieve.
“The Ayer Kuning by-election serves as an important measure of how well the Unity Government can work together and how much sway Perikatan Nasional (PN) holds among young Malay voters.
“It also highlights how a candidate’s personal appeal can influence voting patterns and shape local political momentum ahead of the next general election,” the report stated.
One of the key factors for BN’s success is the ability to receive vote transfers from PH supporters.
While PH and BN are federal allies, Ilham Centre observed that Chinese voters are still cautious of BN, which has led to separate campaigning efforts by DAP and MCA.
In the 15th General Election (GE15), BN’s late candidate Ishsam Shahruddin secured victory over PH’s Major (Rtd) Mohd Nazri Hashim with a majority of 2,213 votes.
“In general, voters who previously supported PH do not face significant barriers in shifting their support to the BN candidate, given the mutual understanding within the Unity Government.
“Meanwhile, the Orang Asli community has clearly remained loyal to BN, viewing the party as still relevant due to its continued service in addressing their needs,” the report added.
“In GE15, PN won four Malay-majority polling districts in Ayer Kuning, signaling a shift away from Umno’s traditional dominance,” the report added.
However, Ilham Centre said that PN is not prioritising non-Malay constituents, which could limit its reach in a mixed-ethnicity seat like Ayer Kuning.
The report was compiled based on interviews with voters from all backgrounds conducted between April 18 and April 24.
Voters will decide tomorrow between BN’s Mohamad Yusri Bakir, PN’s Abdul Muhaimin Malek and Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s (PSM) K S Bawani.
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