Malaysia's 2024 GDP to surpass estimate at 5.4 per cent - Economist

KUALA LUMPUR - UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors is optimistic that Malaysia's 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed the advance estimate of 5.1 per cent announced by the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DoSM).

Its head of investment research, Mohd Sedek Jantan, forecasts higher growth of 5.4 per cent.

Mohd Sedek attributed his positive outlook to sustained strong private consumption and robust export performance.

"The government’s proactive approach to diversifying trade partners and advancing trade agreements further solidifies Malaysia’s external position,” he told Bernama.

He added that the anticipated growth would bolster investor confidence and attract foreign direct investment, which, in turn, would create jobs and boost household incomes.

According to DoSM’s advance GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2024 (4Q 2024), Malaysia’s GDP is projected to expand by 5.1 per cent in 2024, up from 3.6 per cent in 2023.

This growth is supported by positive performance across all sectors, with the 4Q 2024 growth forecast at 4.8 per cent, following a stronger 5.3 per cent in the third quarter.

Separately, RHB Investment Bank Bhd maintained its 2024 GDP growth forecast at 5.1 per cent, consistent with the DoSM estimates.

"For the final 4Q 2024 estimate, scheduled for release on Feb 14, we expect GDP growth to remain at 4.8 per cent year-on-year,” the bank said in a note.

RHB also kept its 2025 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 5.0 per cent.

Meanwhile, OCBC’s senior ASEAN economist, Lavanya Venkateswaran, stated that DoSM's 2024 estimates align with the Ministry of Finance’s official forecast of 4.8-5.3 per cent.

"The 2024 GDP growth outturn was broadly consistent with official expectations and supports our view that Bank Negara Malaysia will keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.00 per cent in 2025,” she said in a note.

Venkateswaran maintained her 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4.5 per cent, citing solid domestic demand and resilient, though moderating, export growth.

"The strength in household and investment spending will likely be sustained in 2025, while electric and electronic export growth will remain strong but moderate compared to growth rates seen in 2024,” she added. - BERNAMA