BN favoured to retain Ayer Kuning, but analysts warn against complacency

SHAH ALAM - Political analysts suggest that the Ayer Kuning by-election could be an easy victory for Barisan Nasional (BN), given shifting political dynamics and the declining momentum of Perikatan Nasional's (PN) "Green Wave."

However, they caution that complacency could cost the BN-Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition under the Unity Government as Opposition parties strategise to make inroads.

International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said that BN is well-positioned to retain the seat, with PN’s support likely to decline.

She stated that the Ayer Kuning by-election could be one of the easier wins for BN.

“PN’s vote share from 2022 may decline due to the waning momentum of the ‘Green Wave.’ Meanwhile, BN’s share might see a slight increase, thanks to its cooperation with PH.

“Pas will need to focus on securing as much Malay support as possible, but given the constituency’s diverse demographics, relying solely on this strategy may not be the best approach.

“Pas’ strength lies in leveraging religion and community engagement, which they are adept at using to their advantage.

“While securing the Malay vote is crucial due to the demographics, the significant presence of non-Malay voters, particularly those over 40, means that balance is key—something BN has historically managed well,” she told Sinar Daily when contacted.

Syaza also pointed out a shift among youth voters, with many moving away from PN and identifying as neutral.

In this context, she said BN stands to benefit the most, as PN is perceived as far-right and PH as leftist, making BN the strongest contender for centrist and undecided voters.

Concurring with Syaza’s views, political analyst Professor Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian reinforced the idea that BN has the upper hand, recalling the coalition’s strong performance in 2022.

“In the 2022 election, the BN-PH candidate secured nearly 67 per cent of the vote, far surpassing the combined support for PN, Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) and Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA).

“However, political dynamics are always shifting, and the BN-PH coalition under the Unity Government cannot afford complacency if BN hopes to retain its seat,” he said.

Sivamurugan cautioned that Pas might attempt to capitalise on the momentum of the "Green Wave," which bolstered its support in 2022 and use its existing party machinery to mount a challenge.

He stated that in Tapah, the Chenderiang state seat was narrowly won by Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu in 2018 before MCA reclaimed it in 2022.

Given this history, Pas could strategically leverage Chenderiang’s state machinery, particularly through Bersatu, to strengthen its bid for the Ayer Kuning seat.

Demographics will also play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the by-election, as Malay voters made up 55.6 per cent of the electorate in 2022, followed by Chinese (21.9 per cent), Indians (14.3 per cent) and other groups (8.07 per cent).

Sivamurugan stressed the importance of maintaining strong Malay support, which could influence backing from other communities.

“While every vote counts, BN’s dominance in Tapah through MIC, Chenderiang via MCA and Ayer Kuning under Umno highlights the importance of maintaining strong Malay support, which often influences backing from other communities.

“BN’s party machinery has been actively engaging young voters, particularly those from the #Undi18 group, through various programmes and activities aimed at translating their participation into electoral support,” he said.