Ayer Kuning: BN’s expected win signals stability, but GE impact minimal - Analysts
The outcome offers a reassuring boost for BN and the unity government.
SHAH ALAM - Barisan Nasional’s (BN) expected victory in the Ayer Kuning by-election has reaffirmed its grip on a traditional stronghold, but analysts say the result will have little bearing on the next General Election (GE).
International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) Political Science Department head Professor Dr Syaza Shukri described it as a good win for BN, but pointed out that in the context of the next GE, it holds little impact as it merely preserves the status quo.
She added that the outcome, however, offers a reassuring boost for BN and the unity government.
"What we can take away from this result is that the level of trust in BN and the unity government remains stable and this is certainly a positive indicator for them as they move towards the next GE.
"At the same time, I see this outcome as clear momentum for the BN-Pakatan Harapan (BN-PH) coalition and a signal that Perikatan Nasional (PN) needs to reassess their strategies.
“They must return to the drawing board and deeply reflect on why they are not resonating with the public as strongly as they did two years ago," she told Sinar Daily.
Explaining the voters' sentiments, Syaza pointed to the public’s preference for stability and progress as the driving force behind BN’s win.
She believed that one of the main reasons for BN’s success in Ayer Kuning was the community’s desire for continuity, especially since their priority was sustained development.
As part of the government, BN was seen as being better positioned to fulfill these development expectations for the constituency.
However, Syaza highlighted that expectations set by leaders needed to be tempered with realism.
"That being said, I believe the 18,000-vote majority target set by Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad was rather unrealistic.
“As of 8pm today, achieving a majority of over 4,000 votes is actually very respectable, especially considering that the majority in 2022 was only about 2,000 votes.
“Personally, I was expecting a majority in the range of 2,000 to 3,000, so this result is a very pleasant surprise," she added.
Syaza also believed that the so-called 'Green Wave' of Pas and PN had lost momentum, with Pas now mainly holding on to its traditional support in the Malay heartland but struggling to extend its influence beyond those areas.
Meanwhile, Pacific Research Centre of Malaysia principal adviser Dr Oh Ei Sun shared a similar view that BN’s win was largely expected given the constituency’s history.
"The Ayer Kuning by-election is taking place in an area long considered a stronghold for BN, so a victory for the party is very much anticipated.
“However, given that this is a by-election and not GE, it is natural to expect a lower voter turnout, which could in turn result in a reduced winning margin compared to past performances,” he told Sinar Daily.
Oh added the narrative following the election result, pointing out that moderate and progressive groups would likely attempt to portray any drop in support as evidence that the so-called ‘Green Wave’ is losing momentum.
However, he reminded that by-elections often favour candidates from the ruling government, who usually benefit from certain advantages during these contests.
"I am reminded of the situation back in 2008, when BN managed to secure several by-election victories, only to perform less impressively when GE came around,” he added.
As political parties recalibrate their strategies moving forward, analysts agree that while the Ayer Kuning result offers a snapshot of current sentiments, the real test will come when Malaysians head to the polls in the next 16th GE.
Earlier, BN retained the Ayer Kuning state seat in Perak, with its candidate Dr Mohamad Yusri Bakir winning the by-election with a significantly larger majority.
Yusri secured 11,065 votes, defeating PN’s Abdul Muhaimin Malek of Pas, who obtained 6,059 votes and Parti Sosialis Malaysia’s (PSM) KS Bawani, who received 1,106 votes.
The Election Commission (EC) announced that Yusri won with a 5,006-vote majority, more than double the 2,213-vote majority BN secured in the 2022 GE when incumbent Ishsam Shahruddin held the seat.
The voter turnout for the by-election was 58.07 per cent, lower than the 74.85 per cent recorded previously.
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