Risk of second wave energy crisis, GE16 may be held as early as 2027 - Analysts
Government communication will be crucial in such conditions, as the public wants to see calm, clear and convincing leadership during crises.
PRIME Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim recently hinted at the possibility of dissolving Parliament to hold the 16th General Election (GE16) earlier than scheduled.
The statement was made by the Pakatan Harapan (PH) chairman in the event that coalition partners within the unity government continue to act in ways that jeopardise the nation's political stability.
The Finance Minister said this stance was taken following the decision by Umno and Barisan Nasional (BN) to contest solo in all seats in Johor.
This speculation was further fueled by a recent statement from the Election Commission (EC), which noted it has maintained full operational readiness amid mounting speculation regarding the potential early dissolution of several State Legislative Assemblies and the snap execution of GE16.
EC chairman Datuk Seri Ramlan Harun said the commission remains fully prepared for any imminent dissolution of the state assemblies in Melaka, Johor and Negeri Sembilan, while simultaneously intensifying nationwide preparations ahead of GE16.
Adding to the surprise, former economy minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and former natural resources and environmental sustainability minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad made a major move by announcing the takeover of a new party, resigning as Members of Parliament for Pandan and Setiawangsa respectively and exiting Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) earlier than expected.
From an economic perspective, economics and finance senior director at the Prime Minister’s Office Nurhisham Hussein warned that domestic oil supply may not return to normal until the end of this year – or even 2027 – even if the war ends soon.
This is because supply chains and oil well operations require months to recover, raising concerns about a potential second and even third wave of a global energy crisis extending into next year.
With mounting economic challenges and growing concerns over weakening political stability, public attention is now focused on whether Anwar will take the risk of calling an early GE16 alongside state elections, or otherwise.
KRA group strategy director Amir Fareed Rahim said a second wave of the global energy crisis is unavoidable and likely to have a greater impact.
He explained that the issue is no longer limited to rising oil prices, but also involves supply chain disruptions, logistics costs and global inflationary pressures.
“From an economic standpoint, Malaysia still has strong fundamentals, such as support from the petroleum sector and a stable financial system.
“However, if the crisis prolongs, the cost of living is expected to rise further, and the government will face greater fiscal pressure to maintain subsidies and public assistance.
“When the cost of living increases, it becomes an emotional issue for the public as it directly affects daily life. This can heighten dissatisfaction with the ruling government,” he told Sinar.
Politically, the second wave of the global energy crisis is expected to test public confidence in the government’s ability to manage the economy.
According to Amir, government communication will be crucial in such conditions, as the public wants to see calm, clear and convincing leadership during crises.
“We don’t know how long this global energy crisis will last. Its overall impact may even extend into a third wave. The longer it continues, the higher the political risk to government stability.
“If elections are held earlier, the full impact of the crisis may not yet be felt. If the crisis is resolved sooner, the government can then focus on recovery,” he added.
Meanwhile, Ilham Centre executive director Hisommudin Bakar said another key risk is the relationship between parties within the Madani Government following state elections in Johor, Melaka and possibly Negeri Sembilan.
He said if tensions persist after the state elections in these three states, the Madani Government risks facing a performance deficit regarding its effectiveness in economic management and public well-being.
“In my view, we don’t know how long the crisis will persist. A third wave is possible if no near-term solution is found.
“From an economic perspective, it might be better for GE16 to be held early next year. The priority should be managing global pressures wisely without rushing.
“However, determining the timing of GE16 is not just about economic conditions, but also domestic political dynamics,” he said.
At the same time, the core contents of Budget 2027 could serve as an indicator and a platform for the government's roll-out plan to assist affected groups and sectors more comprehensively ahead of the general election.
"Focus can be given to economic preservation. Reformist issues, such as initiatives to streamline the fuel subsidy mechanism, could also be considered to further strengthen the country's fiscal position," he said.
Meanwhile, Bersatu information chief Datuk Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz acknowledged that the possibility of an early election had been anticipated by many, based on the government’s performance in handling current issues including the economic crisis, cost of living and national finances.
In the meantime, DAP national vice-chairman Syahredzan Johan said the party has already received directives from the Central Executive Committee and has made thorough preparations to face the upcoming elections, including those in Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Johor.
"Regarding the GE, I believe there is no issue in terms of our readiness to face an early general election," he said in a statement.
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