Would PH collapse if Malaysians went to the polls now?

IF elections are held now or under the current conditions, Pakatan Harapan (PH) would collapse or be "gone", says Ilham Centre chief researcher and lecturer in Policy Studies at the Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Development, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu Associate Professor Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim.

Based on the views of several political analysts, the risk does not stem from a single factor, but is instead the result of four major crises occurring simultaneously: declining electoral support, internal divisions within PKR as the backbone of PH, the government’s failure to manage the people’s cost-of-living pressures and worsening perceptions of governance.

PH’s performance in the Sabah state election served as the clearest warning sign of this decline in support, with PKR winning only one seat out of the 22 it contested, while DAP failed to retain all eight seats it had previously won in the 2020 state election.

This result shows that PH has not only failed to expand its influence in East Malaysia, but has also lost its traditional strength in urban areas.

According to political analyst Mohamad Afifi Abdul Razak, the situation suggests that the PH brand is gradually eroding.

In Sabah, he said DAP’s failure to win any seat shows that the party is no longer invincible in urban constituencies, while PKR’s weak performance proves its failure to build a strong grassroots base outside Peninsular Malaysia.

He stressed that if this pattern is repeated in Peninsular Malaysia, especially in marginal seats, PH risks losing support not only from fence-sitters but also from its core supporters who are increasingly disappointed with the political compromises within the unity government.

“Furthermore, the people are now tired of the same old leadership that has yet to change and they feel they need new leaders to rejuvenate Malaysian politics. The emergence of Datuk Seri Dr Samsuri Mokhtar as chairman of Perikatan Nasional (PN) is seen as having the potential to become an alternative amid the current leadership crisis,” he told Sinar.

At the same time, he believes the biggest crisis facing PH today comes from within the coalition itself, particularly involving PKR.

“As the backbone of the coalition, PKR is now showing increasingly clear signs of division,” he said.

He explained that the relationship between former PKR deputy president Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and the party leadership also appears to be growing more distant.

Most recently, during a demonstration last Saturday, Rafizi said he would announce his political direction in June and did not rule out the possibility of starting a new political move.

“The joint statement by Rafizi and nine other PKR Members of Parliament on the issues of foreign workers, Bestinet, Foreign Workers Centralised Management System (FWCMS) and Universal Recruitment Advanced Platform (TURAP), as well as several other matters, shows that there is an internal bloc no longer moving in line with the PKR president and part of the government leadership. This gives the impression that PKR is no longer operating as one team,” he said.

At the same time, Afifi said Nurul Izzah Anwar’s victory as PKR deputy president has yet to be fully translated into the recovery of the party’s brand.

“She has yet to stand out as a figure capable of healing the wounds of PH supporters, strengthening the grassroots structure or reviving the reform narrative that was once the coalition’s main strength,” he said.

He added that the phenomenon of a "body without a head" in PKR’s divisional elections further strengthens the argument that the party is facing serious organisational problems.

“In Kangar, the resignation of 15 committee members, including the deputy division chief, reflects deep dissatisfaction with the direction of the current leadership, showing that the crisis is not confined to the elite level but has also spread to the grassroots,” he said.

In addition, the factor with the most direct impact on public support is the cost-of-living pressure, particularly in relation to fuel prices.

According to analyst Dr Mukhtaruddin Musa, this issue has become the key determinant in assessing public support for the government.

He said today’s Sinar Harian front-page report shows that rising fuel costs have had a direct impact on various sectors of the economy.

“In the school transport sector, bus and van operators are under pressure as the diesel subsidy only covers around 25 per cent of their actual needs, forcing them to bear the remaining costs and potentially raise fares,” he said.

In the agricultural sector, he said the increase in fertiliser and pesticide costs by between 20 and 30 per cent has squeezed profit margins to the point that vegetable production risks dropping by as much as 50 per cent.

Meanwhile, in the paddy sector, production costs have risen to nearly RM7,000 per hectare, making operations increasingly unsustainable.

“Although subsidies exist, they are insufficient to absorb the surge in costs, while the purchase price of paddy remains low and no longer aligns with current realities, creating the risk of farmers leaving the sector.

“In service sectors such as car rentals, the sharp rise in fuel costs has forced operators to restructure prices and business strategies, while consumer demand has also declined due to financial pressure,” he said.

At the household level, he said the impact of rising fuel costs has triggered higher prices for goods, fares and monthly bills, significantly reducing people’s disposable income.

“Overall, every sector shows that rising fuel costs not only affect producers and operators, but are ultimately passed on to the public in the form of higher prices and a declining quality of life.

“All of this is fuelling public dissatisfaction with PH as the leading force in the government today,” he said.

Another analyst, Dr Mohd Fuad Salleh, said the biggest threat to PH is the loss of the moral advantage that was once its greatest strength.

He said PH had previously won on the narrative of reform, integrity and good governance. However, major issues such as allegations involving outgoing Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) Tan Sri Azam Baki’s share ownership, claims of a corporate mafia, Bestinet, FWCMS, TURAP and weaknesses in institutional management have led reform supporters to question the government’s sincerity.

He said the "Tangkap Azam Baki" rally on April 25, although not held on a large scale, carried significant political symbolism.

“It shows that integrity issues are now not only being played up by the opposition, but are also being driven by figures and supporters once associated with the reform movement itself.

“This rally cuts across party and political ideology. There were representatives and leaders from PH (PKR, DAP, Amanah), BN (MCA), PN (Pas and Bersatu), PSM, Muda, Urimai and other parties.

“A large number of the public who attended were non-partisan ordinary people and many non-Malays, who once formed the core of PH’s support base, also joined.

“This proves that integrity has become a cross-political issue that could sharply drag down support for PH if the 16th General Election (GE16) were to be held in the near future,” he said.

He also pointed to the issue of a viral social media video involving a woman known as Sofia Rini, who linked Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his former aide, Datuk Seri Farhash Wafa Salvador Rizal Mubarak.

“To this day, no action has been taken against her, making it seem as though there may be some truth to what she said.

“The public appears more inclined to believe the woman’s allegations that Anwar’s former aide was involved in abuse of power, which led the MACC to detain Datuk Seri Samsul Iskandar Mohd Akin,” he said.

In conclusion, based on the views of these analysts, the combination of declining electoral support, internal divisions within PKR, cost-of-living pressures and a governance crisis has created a political landscape that is currently unfavourable to PH.

If these issues are not addressed quickly and effectively, GE16 could potentially become a referendum on the disappointment of its own supporters.

In this context, the statement that PH risks being 'gone' is something that deserves serious attention.