Bersama could emerge as kingmaker or vote splitter in Johor, Negeri Sembilan polls, says analyst

SHAH ALAM – Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) could emerge as a third force or kingmaker in the upcoming Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, as much of its support base is drawn from diverse voter segments.

University Malaya Department of Political Science senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the party, led by Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad, had also become an alternative platform because it was seen as representing the sentiments and aspirations of pragmatic voters.

He said Bersama was also not expected to contest every seat, but would instead focus on constituencies where it had a realistic chance of winning or, at the very least, splitting the vote.

“Political parties and leaders should not underestimate Bersama’s presence even if it may not intend to contest every seat in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

“Bersama will enter contests in constituencies where it has the potential to win or split votes in areas previously dominated by Pakatan Harapan (PH), particularly seats held by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and DAP.

“A large proportion of Bersama’s supporters and voters come from segments aligned with the government as well as those disappointed with opposition parties. Bersama’s strength also lies in its solid data and statistical records, as Rafizi and his team have long been involved in field research through initiatives such as Invoke.

“As such, they have identified target seats accurately based on shifting support patterns, voter orientation and issues that can be used as political tools during elections,” he said.

When asked whether Bersama was established merely to split votes, Tawfik said the party appeared to have two main objectives, winning the seats it contested while at the same time preventing rival parties from securing victory in certain constituencies.

“I do see an element of vote splitting, particularly in constituencies where support overlaps with other opposition parties.

“However, I do not believe their primary aim is to form the government. Instead, they want to be in a strategic position as a kingmaker because Malaysian politics today no longer depends solely on the dominance of a single party,” he said.

Meanwhile, he believed Rafizi’s political influence had yet to fade despite no longer being with PKR.

He said the former Economy Minister still retained his own support base, particularly among young voters, urban and semi-urban Malays, as well as a segment of non-Malay voters dissatisfied with the current political landscape.

“Although his series of roadshows has not attracted particularly large crowds, the ideas and messages he carries continue to spread widely through social media and grassroots supporter networks.

“This shows that Rafizi’s political brand still has its own appeal,” he said.

However, Tawfik acknowledged that Bersama’s biggest challenge at present was building a strong election machinery within a short period.

He said there was still no clearly established organisational structure reaching the grassroots level to face the series of elections expected in the coming months.

“Realistically, it is difficult for a new party to build a complete election machinery in such a short time.

“However, I believe Bersama will rely more on soft intervention through issue ownership, political narratives and social media influence to shape voters’ thinking rather than depending entirely on physical election machinery,” he said.

Bersama, which was taken over by Rafizi and former Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Minister Nik Nazmi in May, was reported to have around 25,000 registered members since the party’s relaunch three weeks ago.